More PROFIT from Qatar? 世界杯葡萄牙VS瑞士,“Tapio”老师体育赛事分享,体育直播吧老师分享

Portugal VS Switzerland

Portugal and Switzerland lock horns in this 1/8-finals battle at Lusail Iconic Stadium in Lusail early Wednesday morning Beijing time. All the football fans have every reason to expect a high-class and entertaining match! Both teams have the players to play creative, offensive football – if needed – especially in a situation where the opponent has taken the lead. However, despite a pretty high number of goas being scored in the play offs so far we must not be fooled by the results in a few matches that were expected to be somewhat unbalanced to begin with – for example Brazil versus South Korea (4-1). I see the match as more low-scoring the even the largest, usually pretty sharp bookmakers with the biggest betting limits estimate. They have set the number of expected goals at around 2.30 but my number is only 2.02. The long-term data clearly shows us that the goal expectancy in the play offs in international tournaments is lower than in group stages, especially when too pretty balanced, good teams face. I expect the Swiss to be quite cautious here - especially in the first half. The draw would most certainly not surprise anyone here – the probability is 30% and this result would be enough to bring my fans and me yet another winner with the recommended handicap bet on the Swiss. There is, of course, not doubt about the fact the Portugal the favorites here. However, their chance of winning during the 90 minutes of play is only 44%. They have on edge over Switzerland in all areas of the game, but in defense the margin in their favor - if important Nico Elvedi is able to play – is very small. He has been suffering from a flu lately. Portugal have not fully convinced be in the past couple of years. They finished in the second place in the qualification group behind Serbia and earned a ticket to Qatar beating Turkey and North Macedonia - not very good teams - in the extra rounds of qualifying. Serbia won the group with 20 points – Portugal were second with 17 points to their account. Interestingly. Switzerland beat Serbia last week 3-2 and were clearly the better team! Serbia were pretty strong in the first half but the Swiss took an early lead in the second half and controlled the events on the pitch in a brilliant way until the final whistle. I was very impressed by them! They shut down the Serbs offense in a masterful way and did not give them a true chance to level the score – not to mention win the game! The Swiss recorded a very high number in expected goals (xG) - 3.65! Serbia number was just 1.34. Quite weirdly, Serbia were the favorites to win on the betting market – my fans and I sided with the Swiss who were clearly under-valued in this match – and this is the case once again here! The main reason must be that they do not have any super stars in the squad but it is - after all - the team effort that counts in football.

Let's remember that Switzerland defeated the second-best team in the world in my view - and reigning champions, France in the EURO 2020 play offs in the summer of 2021. Portugal, on the other hand, lost to Belgium in the first round of play offs 0-1. In the 2018 World Cup in Russia both teams lost in the first round of play offs. Furthermore, Portugal are in the 9th place in the FIFA ranking - Switzerland occupy the 15th place but I would rate them as the 13th-best team in the world at the moment. Surely they are better than for example Mexico or even Denmark who are ranked higher. Indeed, nothing suggests that Portugal would deserve to be clear favorites here. Portugal have the more skilled and creative individuals here but Switzerland are an extremely well-organized team who also seem to have a great team spirit and an excellent coach - better than Portugal in my view! The best player in the world some years ago, C. Ronaldo, seems to be a burden for Portugal at the moment and the majority of people of Portugal already think he should not be in the starting lineup.. this will most probably not happen though. Cristiano had very bad season in Manchester United before the club sacked him a few weeks ago after the interview he gave with a British journalist Piers Morgan criticizing the club, the coach Ten Haag and so on.. In my view Portugal's goal-scoring potential is not as good as many football fans or the betting market believe! Yes, they scored three goals against the somewhat unorganized Ghana defense but were not too great in this match. Portugal's penalty was also a "50-50 situation".. Indeed, many referees might not have given it..

Let's also not forget that Switzerland were quite good defensively against Brazil losing only 0-1 through Casemiro's goal in the 83th minute. Brazil did fully deserve the win but as the Swiss did not record any shots on goal. However, Brazil are clear favorites to win this tournament.. We all saw have stunningly good they were against S. Korea yesterday and could easily have scored 6-7 goals.. Even so, Switzerland challenged the Brazilians better than the Serbs did. Cameroon, of course, beat them 1-0 - with a lot of luck and Brazil's coach Tite also heavily rotated his squad in this match. Brazil only recorded 54% ball possession against the Swiss who managed to create four goal attempts - the same number as the Serbs did. Brazil's number against the Swiss was "only" nine against the Serbs it was 24! Furthermore, the Swiss defeated Cameroon 1-0 after not a stunningly good , but very solid performance! They can, and I believe still improve though - especially offensively - as Portugal are much better than Cameroon. The first half was somewhat balanced but in the second half the Swiss showed their class and scored the goal needed to win. It could easily have been 2-0.. They recorded 1.94 in xG – Cameroon's number was just 0.78. Portugal were quite good against disappointing Uruguay winning 2-0 but the final score flatters them. They did however, lose to S. Korea 1-2 after a lame performance - both teams recorded around 1.30 in xG. However, Santos did rotate his squad in this match as Portugal had already secured a spot in the play offs.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

葡萄牙VS瑞士

北京时间周三凌晨，葡萄牙队和瑞典队在北京卢萨伊标志性体育场打响了这场八分之一决赛的角力。所有的球迷都有理由期待一场高水平和有趣的比赛!两支球队都有球员踢出创造性的、进攻性的足球——如果需要的话——特别是在对手领先的情况下。然而，尽管到目前为止在附加赛中打进了相当多的进球，但我们不能被几场比赛的结果所愚弄，这几场比赛一开始就被认为是有点不平衡的——例如巴西对韩国(4-1)。我认为这场比赛的分数更低，甚至是最大的，通常是非常敏锐的博彩公司，下注限额估计最大。他们设定的预期进球数在2.30个左右，但我的数字只有2.02个。长期数据清楚地告诉我们，国际赛事附加赛的进球预期低于小组赛，特别是当优秀球队面临太过平衡的情况时。我预计瑞士人在这里会非常谨慎——尤其是在上半场。抽签的结果肯定不会让任何人感到惊讶——概率是30%，这个结果足以给我和我的球迷带来另一个在瑞士人身上被推荐的障碍赌注的赢家。当然，毫无疑问，葡萄牙是最有希望的球队。然而，他们在90分钟的比赛中获胜的几率只有44%。他们在比赛的各个方面都领先于瑞士队，但在防守方面，如果重要的尼科·埃尔维迪能够上场，他们的优势就非常小。他最近一直患流感。葡萄牙在过去的几年里并没有完全相信这一点。他们在预选赛小组中排名第二，落后于塞尔维亚，并在预选赛附加赛中击败了土耳其和北马其顿两支实力不强的球队，获得了前往卡塔尔的入场券。塞尔维亚积20分小组第一，葡萄牙积17分小组第二。有趣的是。瑞士上周3-2击败了塞尔维亚，显然是更强的球队!塞尔维亚在上半场相当强大，但瑞士人在下半场早早取得领先，并以出色的方式控制了球场上的局面，直到终场哨响。我对他们印象很深刻!他们以高超的方式压制了塞族人的进攻，没有给他们一个扳平比分的机会，更不用说赢得比赛了!瑞士人的预期进球数(xG)非常高——3.65!塞尔维亚只有1.34。非常奇怪的是，在博彩市场上，塞尔维亚是最有希望获胜的球队——我和我的球迷站在瑞士人一边，他们在这场比赛中明显被低估了——这里再次出现了这种情况!主要的原因肯定是他们的阵容中没有任何超级球星，但毕竟，在足球中，团队的努力才是最重要的。

让我们记住，在我看来，瑞士队在2021年夏天的2020年欧洲杯附加赛中击败了世界第二强的球队——卫冕冠军法国队。另一方面，葡萄牙在第一轮附加赛中0-1输给了比利时。在2018年俄罗斯世界杯上，两支球队都在第一轮附加赛中失利。此外，葡萄牙在国际足联排名第9位，瑞士排名第15位，但我认为他们目前是世界上排名第13位的最佳球队。当然，他们比墨西哥，甚至比排名更高的丹麦都要好。事实上，没有任何迹象表明葡萄牙应该成为本届世界杯的大热门。葡萄牙队有更多技术和创造力的球员，但瑞士队是一支组织非常好的球队，他们似乎也有伟大的团队精神和优秀的教练——在我看来，比葡萄牙更好!c罗，几年前世界上最好的球员，现在似乎是葡萄牙的一个负担，大多数葡萄牙人已经认为他不应该出现在首发阵容。但这很可能不会发生。克里斯蒂亚诺在曼联度过了一个非常糟糕的赛季，几周前，他接受了英国记者皮尔斯·摩根的采访，批评了俱乐部和教练滕哈格等，俱乐部解雇了他。在我看来，葡萄牙的进球潜力并不像许多球迷或博彩市场认为的那样好!是的，他们在加纳毫无组织的防守下进了3球，但在这场比赛中表现不太好。葡萄牙的点球也是“五五开的局面”。事实上，许多裁判可能不会给它。

我们也不要忘记，瑞士在对阵巴西的比赛中，凭借卡塞米罗在第83分钟的进球，仅以0-1落败。巴西完全应该赢得这场胜利，但是瑞士人没有任何射门记录。然而，巴西显然是本届比赛的夺冠热门。我们都看到他们昨天对韩国踢得非常好，可以轻松进6-7球。即便如此，瑞士对巴西人的挑战还是比塞尔维亚人强。当然，喀麦隆1-0击败了他们——运气非常好，巴西教练蒂特也在这场比赛中大量轮换阵容。在对阵瑞士人的比赛中，巴西队仅有54%的控球率，瑞士人创造了4次进球机会，这一数字与塞族人相同。巴西对阵瑞士人的数字“只有”9，对阵塞族人的数字是24!此外，瑞士人1-0击败了喀麦隆，虽然表现不是很好，但非常稳定!他们可以，而且我相信他们仍然在进步——尤其是在进攻端——因为葡萄牙比喀麦隆强得多。上半场还算平衡，但下半场瑞士人展现了他们的水准，打进了必胜的一球。本来比分很可能是2-0..他们的xG值为1.94，而喀麦隆的xG值仅为0.78。葡萄牙在2-0击败令人失望的乌拉圭队时表现不错，但最终的比分却让他们喜出望外。然而，他们在糟糕的表现后1-2输给了韩国，两队的xG都在1.30左右。然而，桑托斯在这场比赛中轮换了他的阵容，因为葡萄牙已经获得了附加赛的席位。