5th WINNER in a row? $$$
2023-01-14
分享比赛
Westerlo VS Oud Heverlee (Leuven)
Westerlo host Leuven for this Belgian Jupiler Pro League round 20 clash at Het Kuipje early Saturday morning Beijing time.This will probably be a pretty entertaining match to watch as both teams have been surprisingly efficient offensively but, on the other hand, do not have a solid defense.. Most importantly, of course, the odds on the betting marker are wrong.. Westerlo have scored 38 goals in this league this season but have also allowed 33 goals - the same number as KV Mechelen, currently in the 14th place. Westerlo currently occupy the 7th place in the standings but I would be quite surprised if they were to finish even in the top-10! They were promoted from the 2nd tier for this season and have definitely been better than I estimated in my in-depth preseason analysis.. I have raised their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class accordingly but they are still only in the 11th place in the ranking. Many of their players have played above their normal level so far and this surely will not go on forever.. They have 30 points in the pocket but their number of expected points (xPTS) is just 26.32. Their number of expected goals (xG) is 33.23. They were lucky in their most recent match beating Cercle Brugge 1-0 away from home. Indeed, the hosts had 56% ball possession and recorded many more scoring chances (11-4), shots on goal (5-2), total passes, attacks and dangerous attacks – 64:32. I didn't like their performance as a whole.. They did defend in a more organized way than normally though. I also want to mention that the hosts played worse than usual – lacking speed and creativity in offense. Before this they faced a good team, Antwerp, at home and it was a 3-3 draw after an open game. The visitors were the better team though and recorded many more scoring chances, shots on goal total passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Before this they lost three games in a row..
Leuven, on the other hand, are in the 9th place with 26 points to their account but I have them in the 10th place in my power rating. Their xPTS is 28.02. Indeed, they are slightly better than the hosts by pure class but taking the home advantage into account Westerlo are narrow favorites with a 38% chance of winning. This means that my fans and I have a 62% chance to extend the winning streak even further with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap option! They have not taken a win for a while but have played okay. In their most recent game they did have some defensive problems though and they were defeated at home by Kortrijk (2-3). The match was, however, a balanced one. Even so, their defense has more quality than that of Westerlo. Especially the defenders' individual skill level is better and the midfielders are more active and better at defending.. They have potential to improve even further - this factor is, of course, not included in the current xPTS number but needs to be taken into account moving forward.. Offensively the teams are more or less equal in my view. I would not be too amazed if Leuven were to finish even in the top-8 in May and qualify for the UEFA Conference League Group. However, this would probably require a new striker and good luck with injuries.. Today they will be without just one guy - M. Taideman. The hosts are missing J. Bernat, E. Daci and B. Reynolds. Last season was a positive one for Leuven and they finished in 11th place with 41 points. In the 2022-2021 season – and many times this season - they were quite frequently under-valued by the bookies and the same is clearly true in this match as well! Lastly I want to mention that according to a very reliable source, Transfermkarkt.com, Leuven's squad also has a slightly bigger total market value (30.10 million euros) than that of the hosts - 27.95 million – which is a bit too high.
