A GREAT match to bet on! 欧联杯萨尔茨堡VS罗马
2023-02-16
分享比赛
Salzburg vs AS Roma
Salzburg welcome AS Roma for this UEFA Europa League 1/16-finals clash at Red Bull Arena early Friday morning Beijing time. The hosts are an Austrian team and AS Roma compete in the Italian Serie A. This is the first leg and football fans and bettors have every reason to expect a high-quality game by Europe League standards. These teams have played even in the Champions League in recent years – Salzburg, in fact, finished in third place in Group E in this competition this season. However, despite a good number of goals being scored in especially Salzburgs's recent games the goal expectancy here is not high. I see the match as even more low-scoring than the betting market does. Furthermore, the draw would certainly not surprise no one. My estimation for the under 2.5 total goals being scored is 70% and 30% for the draw. The first legs in playoffs in this competition - and in the Champions League often are pretty defensive, cautious football as losing is something both teams want to avoid. Technically there is no clear reason for this but that's how it usually is in high stakes in football – similarly to first round matches in the World Cup for example. The away goal rule is no longer in use which decreases Roma's willingness to take offensive risks. I cannot agree with the biggest, often pretty smart bookmakers that accept the biggest bets from customers. Indeed, these bookmakers see Roma as solid favorites offering them odds of around 2.45 to win. With today's lineups I do not see a favorite in this clash which means that my fans and I have a very good chance of winning once again betting on this league with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap on the hosts. Salzburg will be missing D. Guindo (knee injury), J. Omoregie (back), S. Tijani (shin). B. Okoh has been suffering from a knee injury and his situation is questionable at the time of writing this analysis Thursday evening Beijing time. Roma, on the other hand, will be without E. Darboe and L. Spinazzola.
We must remember that the home advantage in UEFA's international club competitions is substantial! Salzburg have very loud and enthusiastic fans and facing an iconic Italian team surely excites them despite the disappointment of not making it to the Champions League playoffs. Roma of course do have an edge over the hosts especially in terms of offensive quality.. Roma, however, rarely excel on the road, especially in international games, and have, in fact, won just one of their latest six games away from home. They took this win on the 22th of January over Spezia 2-0 as clear favorites priced around 1.75 to win by the bookmakers. Salzburg have totally dominated the Austrian Bundesliga this season and top the standings with 42 points. They have netted the ball a whopping 37 times and have allowed just nine goals. Furthermore, they have lost just one and have won 13/17 games in this league. Of course the Italian Serie A is a much better league but I would like to mention that the Austrian Bundesliga is of higher quality than most football journalists seem or the betting market seem to believe.. Roma are currently in the 4th place in Serie A with 41 points, 18 points behind Napoli who top the standings. In their most recent match they played a draw away from home against Lecce away from home without really impressing me. In the Europa League Group phase they had to fight surprisingly hard to qualify. They, for example, lost to a pretty lowly Bulgarian team, Ludogorets, away from home after a lame performance. They also visited my home town, Helsinki, and did beat probably the worst team in the competition, HJK, the Finnish Champions 2-1, but the match was surprisingly balanced and HJK were very close to making it 2-2 late into the second half.. Roma have played some good games this season but overall I think they have been disappointing are often overvalued on the betting market. Moreover, I think their coach, legendary Jose Mourinho, is an overrated guy. His often very defensive tactic does not work that well in modern football.. Salzburg were pretty good in the Champions League last autumn and grabbed six points. They even took a point from the Champions League winners from 2021, Chelsea, in London – 1-1 was the final score. The hosts crushed A. Lustenau 4-0 at home in their most recent match allowing the visitors only 0.13 in expected goals (xG).
北京时间周五凌晨，萨尔茨堡队迎战罗马队，参加这场在红牛竞技场举行的欧联杯 1/16 决赛。东道主是一支奥地利球队，罗马队参加意大利甲级联赛。这是第一回合，球迷和投注者完全有理由期待一场符合欧洲联赛标准的高质量比赛。近年来，这些球队甚至还参加过欧冠——事实上，萨尔茨堡在本赛季的这项赛事中获得了 E 组第三名。然而，尽管在特别是萨尔茨堡最近的比赛中进球很多，但这里的进球预期并不高。我认为这场比赛比博彩市场的得分更低。此外，平局肯定不会让任何人感到意外。我对总进球数低于 2.5 的估计是平局的 70% 和 30%。在这场比赛的季后赛第一回合 - 以及在欧洲冠军联赛中，通常都是非常防守，谨慎的足球，因为输球是两支球队都想要的避免。从技术上讲，这并没有明确的原因，但这就是足球比赛中高风险的通常情况——类似于世界杯的首轮比赛。客场进球规则不再使用，这降低了罗马队承担进攻风险的意愿。我不同意接受客户最大赌注的最大、通常非常聪明的博彩公司。事实上，这些博彩公司将罗马视为稳固的夺冠热门，为他们提供了大约 2.45 的获胜赔率。在今天的阵容中，我没有看到这场比赛中的热门球队，这意味着我和我的球迷有很大的机会再次赢得这个联赛，推荐的东道主 +0.5 进球让分。萨尔茨堡将缺席 D. Guindo（膝伤）、J. Omoregie（背部）、S. Tijani（胫骨）。 B. Okoh 一直在遭受膝伤的困扰，在北京时间周四晚上撰写此分析时，他的情况值得怀疑。另一方面，罗马将没有 E. Darboe 和 L. Spinazzola。
我们必须记住，欧足联国际俱乐部比赛的主场优势是巨大的！萨尔茨堡拥有非常响亮和热情的球迷，面对一支标志性的意大利球队肯定会让他们兴奋，尽管他们对未能进入欧冠季后赛感到失望。罗马当然确实比东道主有优势，尤其是在进攻质量方面。然而，罗马很少在客场表现出色，尤其是在国际比赛中，事实上，他们最近六场客场比赛只赢了一场.他们在 1 月 22 日以 2-0 战胜斯佩齐亚，将这场胜利视为明显的热门，博彩公司的赔率约为 1.75。萨尔茨堡本赛季在奥地利德甲联赛中完全称霸，以42分高居积分榜榜首。他们打进了惊人的 37 球，只丢了 9 个球。此外，他们在这个联赛中只输了一场，赢了 13/17 场比赛。当然，意甲是一个更好的联赛，但我想提一下，奥地利德甲联赛的质量比大多数足球记者或博彩市场似乎相信的要高。罗马目前以 41 分在意甲联赛中排名第四，落后榜首的那不勒斯 18 分。在他们最近的比赛中，他们客场战平了莱切，但并没有给我留下深刻印象。在欧罗巴联赛小组赛阶段，他们不得不出人意料地努力争取出线资格。例如，他们在糟糕的表现后客场输给了一支实力相当低的保加利亚球队 Ludogorets。他们还访问了我的家乡赫尔辛基，并以 2-1 击败了可能是比赛中最差的球队 HJK，芬兰冠军，但比赛出人意料地平衡，HJK 非常接近在第二节末段以 2-2 领先一半.. 罗马本赛季打了一些不错的比赛，但总的来说我认为他们令人失望，在博彩市场上经常被高估。此外，我认为他们的教练，传奇人物穆里尼奥，是一个被高估的人。他经常很防守战术在现代足球中并没有那么有效。 萨尔茨堡在去年秋天的冠军联赛中表现不错，并获得了六分。他们甚至从 2021 年欧洲冠军联赛冠军切尔西在伦敦拿下一分——最终比分为 1-1。在最近的一场比赛中，东道主在主场以 4-0 击败了 A. Lustenau，而客队的预期进球数 (xG) 仅为 0.13。
