A lucrative match in England! 英冠 沃特福德VS西布罗姆
2023-02-20
分享比赛
Watford vs West Bromwch
Watford welcome West Brom for this English Championship round 33 clash at Vicarage Road early Tuesday morning Beijing time. However, in reality the hosts have played 32 matches but West Brom only 31 games so far in this league. This is the second-highest level of English football and is undoubtedly the best second tier on the planet. Both teams are big clubs by Championship standards and football fans can expect a relatively high-level clash between two teams who are, in my view, better than the league table suggests. Indeed, Watford were relegated from the Premier League for this season and have unarguably been having a disappointing season both in terms of performances on the pitch and results. However, I still see them having a good chance of making it to the playoffs (3rd-6th) and fight for a quick return to the highest level. They currently occupy the 8th place in the standings with 47 points in the pocket. They have netted the ball 38 times so far which is definitely not good enough for a Watford's caliber. According to a well-known and respected source, a German website Transfermarkt.com, the hosts' players have a total market value of 125.5 million euros. Whilst I think this number is slightly too high it proves the potential Watford have. In terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved 50.13 points. They have also been unlucky in terms of expected goals (xG) as this number is 41.32. Their defense has been quite solid this season - they have allowed just 35 goals. This less than Middlesbrough, currently in 3rd place with 57 points, have conceded. The visitors have allowed 33 goals but in this area I see the teams as equally good. West Brom have scored 40 goals so far in this league and in this area of the game the hosts have a small edge. Their squad has a total market value of much less than that of the hosts – 60.05 million.
With today's expected lineups - both teams have several absentees – I see the hosts having a 42% chance to take all three points - the bookmakers offer them odds of around 2.70 to win but the +0.5 goals handicap is the safer option here with a very high chance of winning. Watford have not quite met my expectations at home but their record in front of loud and demanding fans is still pretty good. They have lost just three of their latest 12 home games. West Brom, on the other hand, have lost three games in a row away from home scoring just once. They have definitely not been in good form lately winning just one of their most recent five matches. They took this win on the 3rd of February against Coventry at home. They were slightly the better team and one could say they deserved the 1-0 win but did not really impress me. They were priced around 1.90 on the betting market to win this clash. In their most recent game they played a somewhat disappointing 1-1 draw at home against Blackburn – priced around 1.65 to take all three points. The ball possession was 50-50% but the hosts did record a little more in xG – 1.09-0.81. The hosts have not been taking too many points lately either but have lost just one of their latest six matches. In their most recent match they were under a lot of pressure away from home against Burnley, who top the standings by a clear margin, but defended well taking a 1-1 draw but in all honesty had some luck on their side too. Before this they would have deserved to win at home against Blackburn but it was a 1-1 draw. The hosts had 61% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (15-7), shots on goal, attacks and dangerous attacks. They also created much more in xG – 1.16-0.54.
本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：
北京时间周二凌晨，沃特福德在维卡拉格路迎来了英冠第33轮对阵西布朗的比赛。然而，事实上，东道主已经踢了32场比赛，而西布朗到目前为止只踢了31场比赛。这是英格兰足球的第二高水平，毫无疑问是这个星球上最好的第二梯队。按照英冠联赛的标准，这两支球队都是豪门，球迷们可以期待两支球队之间相对高水平的冲突，在我看来，这两支球队比积分榜上显示的要好。事实上，沃特福德本赛季从英超降级，毫无疑问，这个赛季无论是在球场上的表现还是在成绩上都令人失望。然而，我仍然认为他们有很好的机会进入季后赛(第3 -6名)，并为快速回到最高水平而战。他们目前以47分的优势排在积分榜第8位。到目前为止，他们已经进了38次球，这对于沃特福德来说绝对不够好。据德国网站Transfermarkt.com的消息，东道主球员的总市值为1.255亿欧元。虽然我认为这个数字有点太高了，但这证明了沃特福德的潜力。在期望得分(xPTS)方面，他们应该得到50.13分。他们在期望进球数(xG)方面也不走运，因为这个数字是41.32。本赛季他们的防守相当稳固，只丢了35个球。这比目前积57分排名第三的米德尔斯堡还少。客队丢了33个球，但在这方面我认为两队同样出色。到目前为止，西布朗已经在联赛中打进了40个进球，在这方面，东道主有一点优势。他们球队的总市值远低于东道主球队600.05万。
从今天的阵容来看——两支球队都有几名球员缺席——我认为东道主有42%的几率拿下三分——博彩公司为他们提供了2.70左右的胜率，但+0.5的进球数是更安全的选择，赢球的几率非常高。沃特福德在主场的表现并没有达到我的期望，但是他们在球迷面前的表现还是很不错的。在最近的12个主场比赛中，他们只输掉了3场。另一方面，西布朗已经在客场连续输掉了三场比赛，只进了一球。他们最近的状态肯定不是很好，最近五场比赛只赢了一场。他们在2月3日主场战胜了考文垂。他们表现得更好一些，可以说他们配得上1-0的胜利，但这并没有给我留下深刻的印象。在博彩市场上，他们赢得这场比赛的价格约为1.90欧元。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场1-1战平布莱克本，结果有些令人失望。控球率是50% -50%，但东道主的记录是xG - 1.09-0.81。东道主最近也没有拿到太多积分，但在最近的六场比赛中只输了一场。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场面对伯恩利时承受了很大的压力，伯恩利以明显的优势排名榜首，但他们防守得很好，以1-1战平，但说实话，他们也有一些运气。在此之前，他们本应该在主场战胜布莱克本，但结果是1-1战平。东道主有61%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球尝试(15-7)，射门，进攻和危险进攻
