A great match to bet on!
2023-02-21
分享比赛
Hamilton VS Inverness
Hamilton welcome Inverness for this Scottish Championship round 18 at Hope CBD Stadium early Wednesday morning Beijing time. However, in reality both teams have played 24 games so far. This is the second-highest level of Scottish football and is not of particularly high level by European standards. Most teams play pretty physical football, fight for every ball and are at least pretty well-structured and disciplined. However, really skilled individuals are rare. However, at the end of the day my fans' and my goal is to make a hefty long-term profit and I see yet another lucrative betting opportunity here! The biggest, often relatively smart bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers see the hosts as favorites here offering them odds of around 2.45-2.50 to send Inverness home empty-handed. I must strongly disagree with this estimation! Even with today's expected lineups based on my sophisticated in-depth analysis the visitors are solid favorites with a 41% chance of winning. However, we will stick to a safer betting option and bet on Inverness not to lose this clash (+0.5 goals handicap). The probability of winning is 72%.
I strongly believe that the odds are way too heavily affected by the most recent game. Indeed, quite interestingly the teams locked horns three days ago at Tulloch Caledonian Stadium in Inverness and Hamilton won the match 3-0! Inverness were clear favorites in this clash – priced around 1.95 to win on the betting market. The final score is extremely misleading! Inverness had 60% ball possession and recorded clearly more attacks (93-56) as well as dangerous attacks - 61-37.Hamilton did, however, record a little more shots on goals and scoring chances. I want to highlight that Hamilton played significantly above their normal level - Inverness on the other hand did not seem to succeed in anything they tried to do and many of their players – as well as their coach – were understandably very frustrated at the later stages of the match.. When two teams meet in back-to-back games during the regular season it is very common that both teams win one game. This is true not only in football but also in for example ice-hockey – especially if the two teams are pretty equal in terms of pure class.The reason for this is not really known but it probably has something to do with basic human psychology – basically mainly the desire to take revenge... The team that lost the previous game are extra-motivated – the other team might easily get stuck into a ”feel-good state of mind” and is not 100% ready mentally.
We must remember that Inverness were undefeated for six games in a row until the latest match taking three wins and three draws! Before the loss they were excellent and beat Livingston, a team that play in the Premiership and are currently in 6th place! The difference between the first tier and second tier is substantial. Inverness were priced around 6.50 to win during the 90 minutes of play and I was really impressed by them. Shutting down Livingston's pretty strong offense was particularly convincing in my view! No, they were not the better team on the pitch but that would have been pretty unrealistic anaway.. Even so, they proved that the betting market was undervaluing them and the same is true here. They are currently in 7th place with 32 points and have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game – especially in terms of offensive quality. They have netted the ball 34 times in this league so far this season and allowed 35 goals. Last season they finished in 3rd place and will surely climb up the standings as the season progresses. Hamilton are having an abysmal season and are the rock-bottom team at the moment with just 21 points! Their offense lacks structure, speed, creativity and individual skill and they have scored just 22 goals – the lowest number in this league. They have allowed 40 goals which proves that their defense has indeed been shaky in most games. The hosts have improved as a whole lately but the bookies seem to give their potential too much emphasis. Last season they finished in 6th place. I don't really trust their coach and believe a clear further improvement in their level of football is not probable – or will at least take time..
