20/15 in my last Serie A bets 🎯
2023-03-01
分享比赛
It's late call from me, but odds on Roma raised really too much and now I see excellent value on away side.
Roma coming for this game full of confidence as they won 2:0 at home against Salzburg in Europa League and get qualification into quarterfinals. They wants to go with momentum. Roma is only 3 points behind second Inter in league table. If they wants to play in Champions League next season, they have to win in such matches without any excuses. Roma won 50% of away matches so far, but they should make better results. They scored 17 goals, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 20.64. They conceded 14 goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 8.49.
Cremonese is the worst team in whole league. They lost 8 of 11 home league matches. They conceded 19 goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 22.87. In addition to that today they will start without central defender Aiwu and central midfielder Castagnetti. According to the ratings, they are in top3 best players in current season. It's huge blow and should have very bad impact on their performance today.
On those circumstances I see excellent value on Roma.
