An interesting game in Argentina!
2023-04-26
分享比赛
Tigre VS Huracan
Tigre host Huracan for this Argentinian Liga profesional round 13 battle at Estadio José Dellagiovanna in Buenos Aires Wednesday morning Beijing time. This league is of lower level as a whole by global standards than many football enthusiasts and bettors probably realize - taking into consideration what a great football country Argentina is in terms of football culture and – of course, led by Leo Messi, they lifted the World Cup trophy last December in Qatar! It is, on average, similar to many other South American leagues, for example the Brazilian Serie A and the Colombian Primera A, a low-scoring league. This game is no exception! The probability of under 2.5 goals scored is 70%. The hosts' offense has not impressed me in Liga Profesional recently. Thave been lucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). The hosts have grabbed 16 points but I would have deserved just 12.09. Huracan too, have had offensive problems lately and the visitors are expected to be somewhat defensive here – as they usually are away on the road. I must disagree with the biggest, often pretty sharp bookies who see the hosts as solid favorites and offer them odds of around 2.30 to take all three points today. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based in-depth analysis the visitors are slim favorites in this game so the smart choice is the visitors +0.5 goals! The probability of a draw is high – 33.5%. With today's expected lineups the visitors should have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game. Let's also remember that last season they did better than Tigre. The difference was, in reality, bigger than the league table would suggest. The hosts are missing Cabrera, Medina, Protti and Retegui.
As most of my fans probably know I bever let the league table fool me! Huracan have potential for much better and will surely soon start climbing up the standings! Last season they finished in 4th place! The bookies should respect them more! Furthermore, Tigre have not been able to beat Huracan in any of the latest seven matches in Liga Profesional. The +0.5 goals handicap on the visitors is a very solid betting option here. In their most recent match in this league Tigre faced the rock-bottom team in this league with a total of 28 clubs, Union de Santa Fe away from home. They could easily have lost this clash as the hosts recorded more goal attempts (17-10), shots on goal (6-3), attacks and dangerous attacks – 61-27! Before this they also had some luck beating a small team, Sarmiento Junin, 1-0 at home after a surprisingly balanced battle. The visitors even recorded 20 goal attempts! Huracan would have deserved a win in their latest match in this league but no goals were scored against Argentinos Juniors. Huracan defended well and recorded more scoring attempts, shots on goal, attacks and dangerous attacks.
