More PROFIT from Italy?
2023-05-04
分享比赛
Lazio VS Sassuolo
Lazio host Sassulo for this Italian Serie A league 33 battle at Allianz Stadium Stadio Olimpico in Rome. This is the fourth-best league in the world and football fans and us football bettors can expect a quite good-level and entertaining clash here. The stakes for Lazio are gigantic here. Lazio currently occupy the 3rd place in the league table. They are in an intense fight with Inter, AC Milan, Roma, Juventus and Atalanta for a UEFA Champions League spot for next year. The top-4 teams qualify for this prestigious competition. Lazio have 61 points. Inter, AC Milan and Roma have 57 points in the bank. Atalanta are in 4th place with 58 points in the pocket. Lazio have a massive edge over Sassuolo in all areas of the game here. However, the key rationale behind this bet is the motivation factor. Sassuolo are in the 12th place in the standings and have nothing to play for really. They are safe from relegation and have no chance to make it to the top-6 - which would have brought them a place in UEFA's competitions for next season. Lazio have the biggest edge over Sassuolo in terms of defensive quality. Lazio's defense has been excellent so far this season! It has a great structure, the defenders are skilled individuals and make very few silly mistakes. The midfielders – and sometimes even the strikers actively take part in defending if needed – for example when Lazio are protecting a narrow lead in the dying moments of the match. Lazio have allowed just 24 goals this season - only the dominant team, Napoli, have conceded less goals. Sassuolo's defense, on the other hand, has been pretty leaky this season. They have allowed 47 goals and I do not see them having potential to improve in this area of the game during the remainder of the season.
Lazio do not have the best offense in the Serie A but I would still not be surprised to see them score 2+ goals here. Sassuolo too might score here.. They can play relaxed football and will probably not be too defensive.Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis the probability of over 2.5 total goals to be scored is 62%. Lazio should be even bigger favorites than the odds offered by the biggest, often somewhat sharp bookies think. Their chance of sending Sassulo home empty-handed is 68%. Lazio have not been at their best in their latest two games but these results seem to affect the odds too much here. Inter beat them 3-1 in Milano three days ago 3-1 but the hosts were exceptionally strong in this game. Before this Lazio would have deserved at least a point at home against Torino despite an offensively lame performance. The xG numbers were 0.84-0.67.
