An interesting match in Italy!
2023-05-31
分享比赛
Cagliari VS Parma
Cagliari welcome Parma for this Italian Serie B Promotion semi-finals first leg battle at Unipol Domus early Wednesday morning Beijing time. This is the second tier of Italian football but the level is still pretty good for a second-highest level by European standards. Football fans and us football bettors can, however, expect a very good level match here by this league standards between his two good teams. The stakes are, of course, extremely high here as being promoted to the Serie A for next season would mean a lot for both clubs and the players. Both teams have played in Serie A for several years in the past and have the financial resources to compete at the first tier.. I expect both teams to be somewhat defensive here. Major risks will most probably be avoided – even if one team takes the lead.. This is the case in most finals and semifinals in big tournaments– as well as first legs in many competitions in most big countries. Indeed, I see the goal expectancy as lower - and the draw as a more probable result than the betting market does.. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 66%. Cagliari finished the regular season in 5th place Parma, on the other hand, ended up in 4th place. Both teams grabbed a total of 60 points. However, Cagliari's number of expected points (xPTS) was just 56.28. Parma's number of xPTS was 60.78 but I see them having more potential to improve here – even this late into the season.. Also trust their coach a lot – both tactically and as a leader. Cagliari netted the ball 50 times during the regular season. They should be a little more creative offensively – passing the ball faster and more accurately. Their number of goals scored was 48. Cagliari's number of expected goals was, in fact, a little lower – 46.76 to be precise. Indeed, in this area of the game Parma do have an edge over Cagliri.
In terms of defensive quality, on the other hand, Cagliari are the better team than the visitors. However, the difference in this area is pretty small. Cagliari conceded 34 goals in the regular season. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) was a little bigger – 35.56. Even so, silly defensive mistakes are very pretty rare - especially against the lowly and mediocre teams. However, today the opponent is a dangerous one! Parma's opponents netted the ball 39 times but their number of xGA was just 37.12. The biggest, usually pretty smart bookies who accept the largest bets from bettors see Cagliari as solid favorites here. Even taking the substantial home advantage into account I see them only as marginal favorites with today's expected lineups. They had to play a quarter-final game against Venezia at home three days ago - Parma, on the other hand, qualified directly to the Promotion semi-finals and have rested 10 full days now! This is a big advantage for them.. Caglari have had just two full days to prepare for today's tough game. This is far from optimal in professional football..
Cagliari had to battle hard to beat Venezia 2-1. The visitors had 57% ball possession and recorded more attacks and dangerous attacks. The hosts did have two more goal attempts and shots on target. They generated 1.54 in xG – Venezia's number was 1.38. Cagliari were priced around 1.75 to win during the 90 minutes of play by the bookies. It is clear that they were – once – again overvalued. I also want to mention that according to a very well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Cagliari players have a total market value of around 33 million euros. In my opinion this is still a bit too low. I would set the number at around 36 million.. . The visitors' players have a total market value of approximately 46 million which is a little too low as well. Indeed, Parma are the bigger team on paper! The squad market values can be misleading sometimes but do tell a lot.. Both teams played well recently. Even so, Parma have been more impressive lately and have not lost any of their latest eight matches – winning six! They seem to be high in confidence! I think we have an intense, emotional – probably a very physical battle on the cards here. Several bookings are even red card(s)would not be a surprise..
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卡利亚里VS帕尔马
北京时间周三凌晨，卡利亚里欢迎帕尔马参加意大利乙级半决赛首回合比赛。这是意大利足球的第二梯队，但按照欧洲的标准，这个水平仍然是相当高的。然而，足球迷和美国足球投注者可以期待他的两支优秀球队之间以联赛标准进行一场非常出色的比赛。当然，赌注是非常高的，因为下赛季升入意甲对俱乐部和球员来说都意味着很多。这两支球队过去都在意甲踢了好几年，有足够的财力在甲级联赛竞争。我希望这两支球队都有一定程度的防守。即使一个团队领先，重大风险也很可能被避免。在大多数大型赛事的决赛和半决赛中都是如此，在大多数大国的许多比赛中也是如此。事实上，我认为进球预期更低，平局的可能性也比博彩市场更大。总进球数少于2.5个的概率是66%。卡利亚里以第五名结束了常规赛，而帕尔马则以第四名结束了常规赛。两队共得到60分。然而，卡利亚里的预期积分(xPTS)只有56.28。帕尔马的xPTS是60.78，但我认为他们在这里有更大的提升潜力——即使到了赛季后期。同时也要非常信任他们的教练——无论是战术上还是作为领导者。卡利亚里在常规赛中打进50球。他们应该在进攻端更有创造力——传球更快、更准确。他们进了48个球。卡利亚里的预期进球数实际上要低一些，准确地说是46.76个。的确，在这方面帕尔马比卡利里有优势。
另一方面，在防守质量方面，卡利亚里比客队更好。然而，这方面的差异非常小。卡利亚里在常规赛中丢了34球。他们的预期进球数(xGA)要大一些，为35.56。即便如此，愚蠢的防守失误还是非常罕见的——尤其是面对那些平庸的球队。然而，今天的对手是一个危险的对手!帕尔马的对手有39次进球，但他们的射门次数只有37.12次。最大的，通常是相当聪明的赌徒，他们接受投注者的最大赌注，认为卡利亚里在这里是最受欢迎的。即使考虑到巨大的主场优势，我也认为他们在今天的预期阵容中只是边缘热门。他们必须在3天前在主场与威尼斯进行1 / 4决赛，而帕尔马直接晋级半决赛，现在已经休息了整整10天!这是他们的一大优势。卡利只有整整两天的时间来准备今天的艰苦比赛。这在职业足球中远非最佳状态。
卡利亚里以2-1击败了威尼斯。客队有57%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进攻和危险进攻。主队确实有两次射门尝试和射正。他们在xG中产生了1.54 -威尼斯的数字是1.38。在90分钟的比赛中，卡利亚里的胜率约为1.75英镑。很明显，它们再次被高估了。我还想提一下，根据一个非常知名和受人尊敬的德国网站，Transfermarkt.com，卡利亚里球员的总市值约为3300万欧元。在我看来，这还是有点太低了。我估计这个数字在3600万左右。客队球员的总市值约为4600万，这也有点太低了。的确，帕尔马是纸面上更大的球队!球队的市场价值有时会被误导，但确实能说明很多问题。两个队最近都打得很好。即便如此，帕尔马最近的表现更令人印象深刻，他们最近的8场比赛中没有输过一场，赢了6场!他们似乎很有信心!我想我们之间有一场激烈的，情感上的，可能是身体上的战斗。几张黄牌甚至红牌都不会让人惊讶。
