More WINNERS? $$$ 欧协联 希伯尼安VS卢塞恩
2023-08-10
分享比赛
Hibernian vs Luzern
Hibernian welcome Luzern for this UEFA Conference League qualification semi-finals first leg battle at Easter Road in Edinburgh early Friday morning Beijing time. The hosts are a Scottish team and the visitors from Switzerland. This is the third-highest of UEFA's club competitions after the iconic Champions League and the Europa League. When the competition was first a few years ago there were many sceptics – would the fans, the bigger or even middle-sized European clubs really be interested in this competition.. Now I have to admit that I was one of those sceptics despite being happy about the increased chance of smaller teams, for example from my home country of Finland, Scotland and Switzerland - to play in a group stage of an UEFA tournament and make some (prize) money! However, I must admit that us sceptics were proved mostly wrong! Both Hibernian and Luzern are pretty small clubs in terms of realistically qualifying for the group stage in any of the three UEFA's club competitions. In my view in the Conference League this chance exists.. Both teams should be massively motivated. There is no doubt about the fact that the visitors are the better team by pure class here. According to a well-known and respected source, a German website Transfermarkt.com, in terms of players' estimated total market they are clearly the bigger club but in my opinion their squad is clearly overvalued! At least four of their players are not worth the estimated market value! Indeed, the total market values can also sometimes be misleading..
The home advantage in international games is usually massive and the bookies sometimes fail to fully realize this.. The home advantage is often at its biggest in the first leg when the underdog still believes their chances. The market values aside, on the pitch I do not see a big difference between these two teams! The Scottish people are very enthusiastic about football as we have seen many times when the big Scottish teams, Ranger and Celtic, have beaten very big teams at home! Hibernian have very loud and enthusiastic fans who offer a big boost for the hosts here. With the expected lineups, taking the huge home advantage into account, I see the hosts as narrow favorites here. The biggest, sometimes rather sharp bookmakers that offer the largest stake limits, on the other hand, see the Swiss visitors as favorites. Luzern are priced around 2.40 to escape with a win at the time of writing this analysis Thursday evening Beijing time. This means that the obvious smart bet Hibernian +0.5 goals handicap. The first leg in important tournaments is often pretty defensive, sometimes even cautious football. Big risks are avoided, even if one team takes an early lead. The same is expected here. The draw would probably suit both teams pretty well.. Furthermore, the goal expectancy here is, based on my in-depth, mainly data-based expert analysis, lower than the bookies estimate. The probability of under 2.5 goals to be scored is 55%. Hibernian lost their most recent game 2-3 at home against St. Mirren, a pretty dangerous team. It was the opening round of the Scottish Premiership. They would, however, have deserved a win! Indeed, Hibernian recorded 59% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots off goal, attacks and dangerous attacks – 64-42. Moreover, they generated 1.74 in expected goals (xG). The visitors managed 1.02. Before this they crushed Inter Escaldes 6-1 at Easter Road in the previous round of qualification. This must increase their confidence ahead of this challenge which is, of course, of a different caliber compared to facing a small team like Inter Escaldes. Luzern, on the other hand, were bad in their most recent game losing to St. Gallen away from home 1-2. The hosts had 60% ball possession and recorded massively more goal attempts (22-5), shots off goal (16-3), shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks (123-86) as well as dangerous attacks – 87- 35 Moreover, St. Gallen generated much more in expected goals. Luzern looked vulnerable in defense and cannot be too confident after this loss.. They played above their normal level and were also lucky in terms of expected points (xPTS) last season - this probably affects the odds here..
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希伯尼亚vs卢塞恩
北京时间周五凌晨，苏格兰人在爱丁堡复活节路欢迎卢塞恩参加欧冠资格赛半决赛首回合比赛。东道主是苏格兰队和来访的瑞士队。这是欧足联第三高的俱乐部赛事，仅次于标志性的欧冠和欧联杯。几年前这项赛事刚开始的时候，有很多人持怀疑态度——球迷、大型甚至中型的欧洲俱乐部真的会对这项赛事感兴趣吗?现在我不得不承认，我曾经是那些怀疑论者中的一员，尽管我很高兴看到一些小球队，比如我的祖国芬兰、苏格兰和瑞士的球队，有越来越多的机会参加欧足联的小组赛，赚一些(奖金)!然而，我必须承认，事实证明，我们这些怀疑论者大多是错的!希伯尼安和卢塞恩都是非常小的俱乐部，在欧足联的三个俱乐部比赛中都没有资格进入小组赛。在我看来，在联盟中这种机会是存在的。两支球队都应该充满动力。毫无疑问，客队在纯粹级别上更胜一筹。根据一个知名且受人尊敬的消息来源，一家德国网站Transfermarkt.com，就球员估计的总市场而言，他们显然是更大的俱乐部，但在我看来，他们的阵容显然被高估了!他们至少有四名球员不值市场价值!的确，总市值有时也会产生误导。
在国际比赛中，主场优势通常是巨大的，而博彩公司有时没有充分意识到这一点。主场优势往往在第一回合达到最大，因为处于劣势的球队仍然相信自己的机会。撇开市场价值不谈，在球场上，我看不出这两支球队有什么大的区别!苏格兰人对足球非常热情，正如我们多次看到的那样，苏格兰的豪门球队，游侠队和凯尔特人队，在主场击败了非常强大的球队!希伯尼安有非常大声和热情的球迷，他们为东道主提供了很大的支持。考虑到预期的阵容，考虑到巨大的主场优势，我认为东道主在这里的胜算不大。另一方面，最大的，有时是相当尖锐的博彩公司提供最大的赌注限制，将瑞士游客视为最受欢迎的人。在北京时间周四晚上写这篇分析的时候，卢塞恩的价格在2.40左右，以逃脱胜利。这意味着显然明智的赌注是希伯尼安+0.5个进球。在重要的比赛中，第一回合通常都是非常防守的，有时甚至是谨慎的足球。这样就避免了很大的风险，即使有一支球队早早领先。这里也是一样。平局可能对两队都很有利。此外，根据我深入的、主要基于数据的专家分析，这里的目标预期低于博彩公司的估计。进球少于2.5球的概率是55%。希伯尼安最近在主场2比3输给了圣米伦，这是一支相当危险的球队。这是苏格兰超级联赛的首轮比赛。然而，他们应该赢得一场胜利!事实上，希伯尼安有59%的控球率，并且有更多的进球尝试、射门、进攻和危险进攻——64胜42负。此外，他们产生了1.74的预期目标(xG)。游客队获得了1.02分。在此之前的预选赛中，他们在复活节路6-1大胜国米。这一定会增加他们面对挑战的信心，当然，与面对像国际米兰这样的小球队相比，这是一个不同的水平。另一方面，卢塞恩队在最近一场客场1-2负于圣加仑队的比赛中表现糟糕。东道主拥有60%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球次数(22-5)、射门次数(16-3)、射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数(123-86)以及危险进攻(87- 35)。此外，圣加仑队创造了更多的预期进球。卢塞恩在防守上看起来很脆弱，输掉这场比赛后不能太自信。他们上赛季的表现超出了正常水平，而且在预期分(xPTS)方面也很幸运——这可能会影响到赔率。
