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Fulham vs Brentford

Fulham and Brentford lock horns in this English Premier League round 2 battle at Craven Cottage in London late Saturday evening Beijing time. This is clearly the best league in the world as we can see can see taking a look at where the biggest number of elite players play and in where the teams have the biggest estimated market value players' total market value according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermerkt.com. The market value is often a pretty good a team's level on the pitch. However, the market value can, of course, also be misleading Most importantly, we have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity here to increase the amazing winning streak of 9/10! Football fans and us profit-hungry, serious football bettors can expect a match of mediocre level between these two teams! The best teams are Manchester City, the best team in the world and the reigning UEFA Champions League champions - followed by Arsenal who fought hard for the championship last season despite fading seriously away in the last rounds of play. Rather weirdly, they were even the favorites on the betting market - priced below 2.00 at some point to lift the trophy.. One could also say that they ran out of luck.. Indeed, Arsenal took some 12 points more than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (xPTS)! Don't get me wrong - they played a fine season and were the second-best team in the league and their squad is even better this season as they have recently bought Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber. I want to clarify that the xPTS is one of the most important statistical tools used by the majority of professional football bettors nowadays. However, the goal is, after all, to come up with a razor-sharp probability estimation. Almost all of my picks have a % estimation on the chance of winning with the recommended bet. This how I believe I can best serve my fans! Interestingly, behind these two teams even the best football journalists, professional bettors and the betting market disagree on which team are the third, fourth and fifth best in this league.. In my sophisticated and in-depth preseason analysis I had Manchester United in 3rd place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting eleven and without specific motivational factor, fatigue - or some other factor. However, ManU's performance in the first round, on Monday against Wolves, was not great to put it politely.. However, we should be very careful when betting in the first rounds of play and not react too heavily to the results of the first games! I have previewed two Premier League games, two Bundesliga matches and one French Ligue 2 game - with interesting odds! I know Ligue and other smaller leagues are not top-level entertainment but often offer very lucrative betting opportunities as bookies put more resources on the big leagues and make a lot of mistakes with their odds on Ligue 2, German Bundesliga 2, Romanian Liga 1, the Finnish Veikkausliiga etc..

The difference in performances on the pitch between Manchester United, Newcastle and Liverpool is not expected to be big this season – this has nothing to do with Fulham vs Brentford, of course, but I wanted to share my expert analysis with my fans here - in the very early stage of the season - in this free preview that thousands of fans probably read! Behind these teams there are Chelsea, Tottenham, Aston Villa and Brighton in my power rating, and these four teams are probably closer to the three teams mentioned above in terms of pure class than the bookies believe at the moment. However, this most certainly does not mean that these teams are necessarily worth a bet in the upcoming weeks! Bookies often react too heavily to the first results and big teams are often priced too low against the smaller teams.. Furthermore, the transfer window is still open and even famous players come and go almost daily in the Premier League!

Fulham finished in 10th place last season with a respectable 55 points to their account. Let's not forget that Fulham were promoted to the Premier League for last season and I do not think anyone expected them to finish in the top-10 or even top-13! I most certainly did not and have discussed Fulham's last season with many elite football bettors and some of them were even more surprised by Fulham's good results than I was! Well,it is very important to keep in mind that Fulham were one of the luckiest teams in the top-5 European leagues in the 2022-2023 season! In terms of expected points they would have deserved just 37.12 points! With this number of points they would have been close to being relegated.. Indeed, this must be one the main reasons behind Fulham being massively overrated on the betting market here! Many recreational bettors do not even know about – or really give that much emphasis to the xPTS numbers.. As hundreds of millions of football fans bet in the Premier League most bookies usually adjust the odds accordingly.. They usually aim at securing a profit no matter what the result of a given game is. and do sometimes knowingly set the odds "wrong" - not reflecting their actual probability estimation. Here biggest, sometimes pretty smart bookies see Brentford only as narrow favorites - offering them odds of around 2.65 to take all three points which does surprise me.. The 2.65 is way too high – no doubt about that! I expect the odds on Brentford to go down before the kick off as smart smart is expected to pile up on them.. Of course Fulham can win this game in front of home fans but Brentford deserve to be solid favorites with a 45% chance of winning. I want to mention that Fulham do not have very good fans by English standards and they easily get frustrated and can even turn against their team! The unclear situations with Mitrovic and Willian has - totally understandably - also depressed the Fulham fans recently.. More on this topic in the next chapter.. The recommended bet is Brentford to take at least a point. Yes, the visitors with the +0.5 goals handicap option is the professional bettor's choice with a 75% chance of winning here - once again here for me fans to go for yet another winner! I will analyze Brentford later in this in-depth, strongly data-based analysis.

Last season Fulham netted the ball a respectable 55 times but their number of expected goals (xG) was just 46.03. Moreover, they conceded ”only” 53 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) was 73.12! This was, quite amazingly, the biggest number in this league! I am convinced that they will run out of luck this season! They are not safe from relegation but luckily for them Luton and Sheffield United, two newly promoted teams, look pretty weak – at least at the moment.. I have Fulham in the 15th place in my power rating. It is important to understand that Fulham's most important player, Serbian striker Mitrovic, 28, is expected to leave Fulham to play in Saudi Arabia – just like C. Ronaldo, Neymar, Kante etc. He has publicly said – very clearly – that he wants to leave. Losing him will massively hurt Fulham. I believe the betting market does not fully realize his importance to Fulham.. Even if he plays today I believe he will not be at his best. Willian is strongly rumored to leave Fulham as well but the situation is unclear at the time of writing this analysis on Friday and Saturday Beijing time but he probably will not play here. Fulham beat Everton 1-0 in the opening round but even their coach, ex-Everton manager Silva, admitted that it was "not a good performance" from his "Cottagers" team.. I totally agree with him! I want to mention that Everton have been a big disappointment for two seasons in a row and were close to relegation twice in a row already.. Even so, Everton would have deserved a win as they generated as high as 3.31 expected goals – massively more than lucky Fulham who recorded just 1.12! Moreover, Everton recorded many more goal attempts (19-9), shots on goal (9-2), shots off goal, corner kicks (10-4), attacks and dangerous attacks. It is hard to believe that even an offensively lame team like Everton failed to score against Fulham as their defense is very leaky! It has a very poor structure by Premier League standards, the midfielders are often too lazy at defending and silly - sometimes even almost unbelievable - individual mistakes are common! Indeed, I would be very surprised if Brentford were to fail to net the ball here! However, I want to highlight that they have a clear edge over the hosts in all areas of the game! The biggest difference between the teams is, however, in defensive quality.. Last season Brentford allowed just 46 goals in the Premier League. However, their number of xGA was a bit bigger but they can improve in this area of the game. They have an excellent manager in the tactically clever Dane, T. Frank, and play very well as a team. Indeed, they are much better on the pitch than a list of players would suggest! These kinds of teams are often undervalued on the betting market as recreational football bettors often like to place their money on teams with big names - usually strikers like Mitrovic, Kane etc.. Moreover, according to my sources Brentford also have an excellent team spirit! They scored a respectable 58 goals in the Premier League last season and their number of xG was even slightly higher - 62.02. They took a total of 59 points but would have deserved 61.98 in terms of xPTS.

Yes, Brentford will be without the very important striker Ivan Toney for many months. Interestingly, he is suspended for violating the rule that prohibits the Premier League players from betting.. Missing him hurts Brentford but his case has got huge media attention globally.. Even some serious journalists have suspected that Benford's offense will be very lame without him – this is not true in my expert opinion. The likes of Janelt, Norgaard, Jensen, Mbeumo and Wissa should be able to create a lot of scoring chances here and possibly score even 2+ goals! Missing Toney has been given too much emphasis by the betting betting market – no doubt about that! Brenford's odds are expected to be too high in many games in the early season.. Brenford played a 2-2 draw against Tottenham in the first round at home. Tottenham, without Kane, probably boosted by their new and exciting manager, looked surprisingly energized and fast on the pitch and played and it was an entertaining match to watch. Most importantly, Brentford proved they can definitely score goals without Toney! In fact, they recorded a fine 2.13 in xG – Tottenham's number was 1.76. Tottenham did, however, have about 70% ball possession and also recorded more goal attempts, attacks and dangerous attacks. Both teams had six shots on target. Let's remember that Tottenham are a much bigger team than Brentford in terms of financial resources, players' estimated total market value according to a reliable and well-respected source, Transfermarkt.com, and are, of course, better than Brentford by pure class - even without Kane.. I was pretty happy with Brenford's performance but they can still improve. They should have been more organized and aggressive in the midfield and defense – putting more pressure on Tottenham.. However, when analyzing this game we must remember that Fulham are light-years worse than Tottenham offensively and should not pose too much threat on Brentford's defense..

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富勒姆vs布伦特福德

北京时间周六晚，富勒姆和布伦特福德将在伦敦克雷文别墅球场进行英超第二轮的激战。这显然是世界上最好的联赛，我们可以看到，根据著名的德国网站Transfermerkt.com的数据，哪里有最多的精英球员参加比赛，哪里的球队拥有最大的球员总市值。市场价值往往是一个相当不错的球队在球场上的水平。然而，市场价值当然也会被误导最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有利可图的投注机会来增加9/10的惊人连胜!足球迷和我们这些渴望利润的严肃的足球投注者可以期待这两支球队之间的一场平庸的比赛!最好的球队是曼城，这是世界上最好的球队，也是欧洲冠军联赛的卫冕冠军，紧随其后的是阿森纳，尽管在最后几轮比赛中严重落后，但他们上赛季为冠军而战。更奇怪的是，他们甚至是博彩市场上最受欢迎的球队——在某些时候，他们的价格低于2.00美元。也可以说他们运气不好。事实上，阿森纳比他们应得的期望积分(xPTS)多拿了12分!不要误会我的意思——他们这个赛季表现不错，是联盟第二好的球队，而且他们的阵容在这个赛季甚至更好，因为他们最近买了德克兰·赖斯，凯·哈弗茨和尤里恩·图尔。我想澄清一下，xPTS是当今大多数职业足球投注者使用的最重要的统计工具之一。然而，我们的目标毕竟是得出一个精确的概率估计。几乎我所有的选择都对推荐的赌注的获胜几率有一个%的估计。我相信这样才能最好地服务我的粉丝!有趣的是，在这两支球队背后，即使是最好的足球记者、职业投注者和博彩市场也不同意哪支球队是这个联赛的第三、第四和第五。在我复杂而深入的季前赛分析中，我把曼联排在第三位，这反映了这支球队的纯粹级别，拥有最好的11名首发球员，没有特定的动机因素，疲劳-或其他一些因素。然而，马努在周一对阵狼队的首轮比赛中的表现，礼貌地说并不好。然而，在第一轮比赛中下注时，我们应该非常小心，不要对第一轮比赛的结果反应过度!我已经预演了两场英超比赛，两场德甲比赛和一场法甲比赛——非常有趣!我知道法甲和其他较小的联赛不是顶级的娱乐，但经常提供非常有利可图的赌博机会，因为博彩公司把更多的资源放在大联赛上，在法甲、德甲、罗马尼亚甲、芬兰甲等联赛的赔率上犯了很多错误。

本赛季曼联、纽卡斯尔和利物浦在球场上的表现差异预计不会很大——当然，这与富勒姆对阵布伦特福德无关，但我想在这里与我的球迷分享我的专家分析——在赛季的早期阶段——在这个免费的预览中，成千上万的球迷可能会阅读!在这些球队之后是切尔西，热刺，阿斯顿维拉和布莱顿，在我的力量评级中，这四支球队可能比博彩公司目前认为的更接近上述三支球队。然而，这并不意味着这些球队在接下来的几周就一定值得一赌!博彩公司往往对第一场比赛的结果反应过于强烈，而大球队的定价往往低于小球队。此外，转会窗口仍然是开放的，甚至著名球员几乎每天都在英超来来去去!

富勒姆上赛季以可观的55分排名第10。让我们不要忘记富勒姆上赛季升入英超，我认为没有人期望他们能进入前10甚至前13名!我当然没有，我和许多精英足球投注者讨论过富勒姆上赛季的表现，他们中的一些人甚至比我更惊讶富勒姆的好成绩!嗯，记住富勒姆是2022-2023赛季欧洲五大联赛中最幸运的球队之一是非常重要的!从预期积分来看，他们应该得到37.12分!以这样的分数，他们已经接近降级了。印第安纳州

这一定是富勒姆在博彩市场上被高估的主要原因之一!许多娱乐投注者甚至不知道-或者真正给予那么多的重视xPTS数字。由于亿万球迷在英超下注，大多数博彩公司通常会相应地调整赔率。他们的目标通常是获取利润，而不管游戏结果如何。有时也会故意设置“错误”的概率，而不是反映他们实际的概率估计。在这里，最大的，有时非常聪明的博彩公司认为布伦特福德只是一个狭窄的热门-提供2.65左右的赔率来获得所有三分，这确实让我感到惊讶。2.65实在是太高了——毫无疑问!我预计布伦特福德的赔率会在开球前下降，因为预计他们会越来越多。当然，富勒姆可以在主场球迷面前赢得这场比赛，但布伦特福德有45%的获胜机会，值得信赖。我想说的是，富勒姆的球迷并不是很好，他们很容易沮丧，甚至会反对他们的球队!米特罗维奇和威廉的暧昧关系也让富勒姆球迷感到沮丧。下一章将详细介绍这个主题。我建议布伦特福德至少拿一分。是的，拥有+0.5个进球障碍选项的客队是专业投注者的选择，在这里有75%的获胜机会-再次为我的球迷去争取另一个赢家!稍后，我将在深入的、基于数据的分析中分析Brentford。

上赛季富勒姆有55次进球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)只有46.03。此外，他们“只”丢了53球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)是73.12!令人惊讶的是，这是联盟中最大的数字!我确信他们这个赛季将会失去运气!卢顿和谢菲尔德联这两支刚刚升级的球队看起来很弱，至少目前是这样。富勒姆在我的能量评级中排名第15位。富勒姆最重要的球员，28岁的塞尔维亚前锋米特罗维奇预计将离开富勒姆去沙特阿拉伯踢球，这一点很重要，就像c罗、内马尔、坎特等人一样。他曾公开表示——非常明确地表示——他想离开。失去他会严重伤害富勒姆。我相信博彩市场并没有完全意识到他对富勒姆的重要性。即使他今天上场，我相信他也不会处于最佳状态。威廉也有离开富勒姆的传闻，但在北京时间周五和周六写这篇分析的时候，情况还不清楚，但他可能不会在这里踢球。富勒姆在首轮比赛中1-0击败埃弗顿，但就连他们的教练、前埃弗顿主帅席尔瓦也承认，他的“农夫”队“表现不佳”。我完全同意他的观点!我想提一下，埃弗顿已经连续两个赛季让人失望了，而且已经连续两次接近降级了。即便如此，埃弗顿也应该获得一场胜利，因为他们创造了高达3.31个预期进球——远远超过了幸运的富勒姆，后者只有1.12个预期进球!此外，埃弗顿的进球次数(19胜9负)、射正(9胜2负)、射偏、角球(10胜4负)、进攻和危险进攻也更多。很难相信即使像埃弗顿这样一支进攻很差的球队在对阵富勒姆的比赛中也没有进球，因为他们的防守漏洞百出!以英超的标准来看，这支球队的结构非常糟糕，中场球员在防守时往往太懒，而且愚蠢——有时甚至令人难以置信——个人失误很常见!事实上，如果布伦特福德在这里没能把球打进，我会感到非常惊讶!然而，我想强调的是，他们在比赛的所有领域都比东道主有明显的优势!然而，两队最大的区别在于防守质量。上赛季，布伦特福德在英超联赛中只丢了46个球。然而，他们的xGA数量要大一些，但他们可以在这方面有所改进。他们有一个出色的教练，战术上聪明的丹麦人T.弗兰克，他们作为一个团队踢得非常好。事实上，他们在球场上的表现比球员名单所显示的要好得多!这类球队在博彩市场上的价值往往被低估，因为休闲足球投注者通常喜欢把钱押在有大牌球员的球队身上——通常是像米特罗维奇、凯恩等前锋。此外，据我所知，布伦特福德也有很好的团队精神!他们在上赛季的英超联赛中打进了可观的58球，他们的xG数甚至更高——62.02。他们一共拿走了5张

9分，但在xPTS方面应该得到61.98分。

是的，布伦特福德将有好几个月没有非常重要的前锋伊万·托尼。有趣的是，他因为违反了禁止英超球员赌博的规定而被禁赛。想念他让布伦特福德很伤心，但他的案子得到了全球媒体的广泛关注。甚至一些严肃的记者都怀疑，没有他本福德的进攻将会非常蹩脚——这在我的专业意见中是不正确的。像詹内特、诺加德、詹森、姆博莫和维萨这样的球员应该能够在这里创造很多得分机会，甚至可能进2个以上的球!毫无疑问，赌博市场对托尼小姐的关注太多了!在赛季初的许多比赛中，布伦福德的赔率被认为太高了。布伦福德在第一轮主场2-2战平热刺。没有凯恩的托特纳姆热刺，可能是受到了他们令人兴奋的新教练的鼓舞，在球场上看起来令人惊讶地精力充沛，速度很快，比赛看起来很有趣。最重要的是，布伦特福德证明了他们没有托尼也能进球!事实上，他们在xG的数据是2.13，而热刺的数据是1.76。然而，热刺队的控球率约为70%，进球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数也更多。两队都有6次射正。让我们记住，托特纳姆热刺是一支比布伦特福德大得多的球队，根据一个可靠且受人尊敬的来源，Transfermarkt.com，球员的估计总市场价值，当然，纯粹的阶级比布伦特福德好——即使没有凯恩。我对布伦福德的表现很满意，但他们仍然可以提高。他们应该在中场和防守上更有组织，更有侵略性，给热刺更多的压力。然而，在分析这场比赛时，我们必须记住富勒姆的进攻比热刺差了好几光年，不应该对布伦特福德的防守构成太大的威胁。