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Celtic FC VS Atletico Madrid

Celtic welcome Atletico Madrid for this UEFA Champions League Group E round 3 battle at Celtic Park early Thursday morning Beijing time. A total of six rounds will be played. The stakes are high here as all teams still have a chance to make it to the top-2 – subsequently qualifying for the Playoffs next spring. The team who finishes in third place earns a ticket for the UEFA Europa League 1/16-finals. However, I would be extremely surprised if Celtic were to make it to the Playoffs! They are the worst team in this group - by a wide margin. Many of my fans probably remember me mentioning many times before that the Scottish teams, especially Rangers and Celtic, are very often overvalued in international games. The Scottish Premiership is a “weird” league. Celtic and Rangers have dominated the league for a long time and other teams are pretty lowly. For example, Aberdeen, one of the better-than-average teams played a very balanced game against the Finnish champions HJK Helsinki, in the UEFA Europa Conference League a few weeks ago. HJK are a small team in terms of players estimated total market value according to a well-known and respected German website. The low level of the Premiership hurts Celtic’s chances as they cannot get enough high-level games that they would need to compete in the Champions League. At home the Celtic and Rangers sometimes surprise a much stronger opponent at home, but the betting market seems to give these surprises, often with quite a bit of luck, way too much emphasis.. The odds of around 1.90 on the visitors to win are widely available at the time of writing this analysis Wednesday afternoon Beijing time. This is much too high – the Spanish elite club, “Atleti” have a 60% chance of taking all three points! Neither Rangers nor Celtic have beaten a team of Atletico Madrid’s calibre for a long time! According to Transfermarkt.com there is a substantial difference between the two clubs. The Celtic squad is valued at around 127 million which is clearly too high - around 90 million would be a more realistic number. At least four players are overvalued. The Atletico Madrid squad is valued at around 472 million which is more or less correct in my expert opinion. Celtic have lost both games in this league so far.

In the opening round they were outplayed by Feyenoord, a Dutch team who are not even close to Atleti’s level in terms of pure class. Feyenoord fully deserved the 2-0 win after generating 1.89 in expected goals (xG), poor Celtic recorded just 0.26. They did receive two red cards in the second half though. However, they would probably have lost even without the sending offs. In the second round Celtic pushed an out-of-form Lazio, an Italian club, but lost 1-2. Lazio did generate more in xG in this game and Celtic’s lack of individual skill was the key thing in the end here. Atleti played a pretty balanced game in Rome in the first round and it was a 1-1 draw as Lazio’s goalkeeper (!!!), Provodel, scored the equalizer in the 90+5th minute! Atleti did generate more than Lazio in this match. In the second round Atletico were disappointing despite beating Feyenoord 3-2 at home. Feyenoord had 54% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (18-7), shots on goal (7-3), shots off target (6-2), corner kicks (15-4), total passes, completed passes, attacks (124-78) and especially dangerous attacks 62-25! Moreover, the visitors generated 2.03 in xG – Atletico managed just 0.76. However, the Dutch visitors also played a very strong game – much above their normal level. Atleti were criticized heavily in the Spanish football media after the game and this performance probably affects the odds too much here.. A professional bettor never gives one or two matches too much emphasis! We should not forget that the visitors have now won six games in a row and are high in confidence! They have looked better than last season.. In September they even beat the mighty Real Madrid 3-1 at home! On Saturday they beat Celta Vigo 3-0 away from home. I. Villar did receive a red card in the 25th minute though which “destroyed” the game. After that Atleti did control the events on the pitch – generating 2.56 in xG. A player to watch closely is the French elite striker Antoine Griezmann who bagged his fourth Atleti hat-trick against Celta Vigo last Saturday, equalling Radamel Falcao’s total of the most trebles for the club in the 21st century! Especially in terms of individual skill the visitors have a massive edge over Celtic! Elite players like De Paul and Morata are way too skilled for the Celtic players to handle! They also have an excellent manager, the iconic D. Simeone, who is a passionate guy but very smart tactically. Celtic will probably push hard right after the kick off, but I expect Atleti to defend in an organized way and take control of the game later on.. If Celtic are too aggressive offensively, the visitors can launch fast and ultra-dangerous counter attacks!

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凯尔特人VS马德里竞技

北京时间周四凌晨，凯尔特人将在凯尔特公园迎接马德里竞技参加欧冠E组第三轮比赛。比赛共进行6轮。这里的赌注很高，因为所有球队仍然有机会进入前2名-随后有资格参加明年春天的季后赛。获得第三名的球队将获得欧联杯1/16决赛的入场券。然而，如果凯尔特人能进入季后赛，我会非常惊讶!他们是这个小组中表现最差的球队，而且差距很大。我的许多球迷可能记得我之前多次提到苏格兰球队，尤其是流浪者队和凯尔特人队，在国际比赛中经常被高估。苏格兰超级联赛是一个“怪异”的联赛。凯尔特人和流浪者已经统治了联盟很长一段时间，其他球队都很低。例如，阿伯丁，一支高于平均水平的球队，在几周前的欧联杯联赛中对阵芬兰冠军赫尔辛基HJK的比赛中表现得非常平衡。根据一家知名的德国网站，就球员估计总市值而言，HJK是一支小球队。低水平的英超联赛伤害了凯尔特人的机会，因为他们无法获得足够的高水平比赛，他们需要在冠军联赛中竞争。在主场，凯尔特人队和流浪者队有时会在主场给强大得多的对手带来惊喜，但博彩市场似乎给了这些惊喜，往往有相当多的运气，太强调了……在北京时间周三下午写这篇分析时，客队获胜的赔率约为1.90，这在很多地方都可以买到。这实在太高了——西班牙精英俱乐部“马竞”有60%的机会拿到全部三分!很长一段时间以来，流浪者队和凯尔特人队都没有击败过马德里竞技这种水平的球队!根据Transfermarkt.com的说法，这两家俱乐部之间存在着巨大的差异。凯尔特人队的总价约为1.27亿英镑，这显然太高了——9000万左右是一个更现实的数字。至少有四位球员被高估了。马德里竞技队的身价在4.72亿左右，这在我的专业意见中或多或少是正确的。到目前为止，凯尔特人在联赛中输掉了两场比赛。

在首轮比赛中，他们被费耶诺德击败，这是一支荷兰队，从纯粹的水平来看，他们甚至还没有接近马竞的水平。费耶诺德以1.89个预期进球(xG)完全配得上这场2-0的胜利，而可怜的凯尔特人只有0.26个。他们在下半场得到了两张红牌。然而，即使没有被罚下，他们也可能输掉比赛。在第二轮比赛中，凯尔特人击败了状态不佳的意大利俱乐部拉齐奥，但以1比2输掉了比赛。拉齐奥在这场比赛中确实创造了更多的机会，凯尔特人缺乏个人技术是最后的关键。第一轮，马竞在罗马踢得相当平衡，拉齐奥门将普罗德尔在第90+5分钟进球扳平比分，双方1-1战平!马竞在这场比赛中确实比拉齐奥创造了更多的进球。在第二轮比赛中，马竞虽然在主场3-2击败费耶诺德，但表现令人失望。费耶诺德有54%的控球率，并且有更多的进球尝试(18-7)、射正(7-3)、射偏(6-2)、角球(15-4)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数(124-78)和特别危险的进攻次数(62-25)!此外，客队在比赛中创造了2.03个进球，而马竞只创造了0.76个。然而，荷兰队也踢了一场非常强大的比赛——远远超出了他们的正常水平。比赛结束后，马竞在西班牙足球媒体上受到了严厉的批评，这种表现可能会影响到这里的赔率。职业投注者从不过分强调一场或两场比赛!我们不应该忘记客队现在已经六连胜了，而且信心十足!他们看起来比上赛季好多了。9月，他们甚至在主场3-1击败了强大的皇家马德里!周六，他们客场3-0击败了维戈塞尔塔。维拉尔在第25分钟得到了一张红牌，尽管这“破坏”了比赛。在那之后，马竞确实控制了球场上的事件——在xG中产生了2.56。值得密切关注的球员是法国精英前锋安托万·格列兹曼，他在上周六对阵维戈塞尔塔的比赛中完成了他的第四个马竞帽子戏法，追平了拉达梅尔·法尔考在21世纪为马竞创造的最多三冠王的记录!特别是在个人技术方面，客队比凯尔特人有很大的优势!像德保罗和莫拉塔这样的精英球员对凯尔特人球员来说技术太娴熟了!他们也有一个优秀的经理，标志性的d西蒙尼，他是一个充满激情的家伙，但非常聪明的战术。凯尔特人可能会推他

但我希望马竞能够以一种有组织的方式防守，并在之后控制比赛。如果凯尔特人进攻过于激进，客队可以发动快速和超危险的反击!