Risky - but free!
2020-12-12
分享比赛
Huesca´ s game away at Granada last week was one of the highlights of the round, and they were this time really close to their first - and deserved win! Granada scored twice in the dying minutes and equalized, but as Huesca have collected points throughout the season with draws they should not collapse mentally of this. In the xG-data we can see that Huesca deserve about 5 points more, and they are coming!
Both are basically relegation candidates so this is a 6-pointer, Alaves suffer from injuries and tend to struggle in these matches against their own class, but they surprise the big teams.
Huesca do have such defensive weaknesses that it is easy to understand why they have not won yet, in short it is because the defenders have more responsibility than their skill allows, and there have been huge individual mistakes in crucial positions. They have also conceded late several times when already leading, is it mental form, physical form, or simply inexperience and variance? Whatever the reason their last game was a really good one, they kept on pushing even when leading and while watching I was expecting them to score 4 or more goals!
Last 7 games of Huesca with xG-data below.
As we can see they are not a team to challenge the big ones, but vs their own class they have been equal or the better side each time, and I want to believe in my eyes, they are taking big steps and have a full squad at disposal this time.
Alaves had a poor start for the season, they have lost to Elche, Betis and Granada but gotten points from Sociedad, Barcelona and Real Madrid! Confusing isnt it? There is attacking power and magic in Lucas Perez and Joselu, but there is not much depth. They have often scored the first goal, but in the other hand also conceded 9 times within the last 15 minutes of the game. Today however they have very crucial looking absentees.
Alaves 7 last games with xG-data below
They could had lost vs Sociedad by a few goals, they have lost to another promoted side Elche , and I can not rate Levante, Valladolid or Valencia too highly either.
Especially midfield is struggling today, Battaglia, Pons, Burgui and Manu Garcia are out, as well as key central defender Lejeune. Alaves is not big enough club to cover them well. Defensively these are massive missings as the central axis is not there.
I would not be hugely surprised if Huesca wins this comfortably by a few goals, but the defensive mistakes might still be there and it is safer to go with a simple home win.
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本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：
上周韦斯卡客场对格拉纳达的比赛是这轮比赛的亮点之一，而这一次他们离他们的第一场比赛真的很近了——他们应得的胜利!格拉纳达在最后时刻连进两球并扳平比分，但韦斯卡本赛季一直以平局获得积分，他们不应该因此而精神崩溃。在xg数据中，我们可以看到韦斯卡应该多得5分，他们正在到来!
两支球队基本上都是降级候选人，所以这是一支6分的球队，阿拉维斯遭受着伤病的折磨，在与他们自己的球队的比赛中挣扎，但是他们让大球队感到惊讶。
韦斯卡的防守确实很薄弱，这很容易理解他们为什么还没赢，简而言之，这是因为防守者的责任比他们的技术允许的更多，而且他们在关键位置都有巨大的个人失误。他们在已经领先的情况下也有几次输给对手，是心理状态，身体状态，还是仅仅是缺乏经验和变化?不管为什么他们的上一场比赛是一场很好的比赛，他们在领先的时候也一直在推进，我还以为他们能进4个或者更多的球呢!
韦斯卡的最后7场比赛，下面是xG-data。
我们可以看出他们不是一个团队挑战大的,但对自己的阶级,他们每次相等或更好的一面,我想相信我的眼睛,他们正在大步骤和在处理这一次有一个完整的阵容。
阿尔维斯本赛季开局不佳，他们输给了埃尔切、贝蒂斯和格拉纳达，但得到了社会、巴塞罗那和皇家马德里的积分!令人困惑的不是吗?佩雷斯和约瑟鲁的进攻能力和魔力，但他们的深度不够。他们经常打进第一个球，但在另一方面，在比赛的最后15分钟也有9次失球。然而今天，他们有非常关键的缺席者。
下面是最后7场比赛的xg数据
他们可能在对皇家社会的比赛中输了几个球，他们输给了另一支晋级的球队埃尔切，我也不能把莱万特、瓦拉多利德和瓦伦西亚看得太重。
特别是中场，巴塔利亚、桥斯、布吉和马努-加西亚缺阵，关键的中后卫勒尤恩也缺阵。阿拉维斯没有足够大的俱乐部来很好地覆盖他们。在防守端，这些都是巨大的失误，因为中轴不在那里。
如果韦斯卡以几个进球轻松赢得这场比赛，我不会感到非常惊讶，但防守上的失误可能仍然存在，在主场取得一场简单的胜利会更安全。
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