Bookies are WRONG again! $$$
2024-05-06
分享比赛
Mito Hollyhock VS Roasso Kumamoto
Mito welcome Kumamoto this Japan J2 League round 14 clash at Best Denki Stadium Monday afternoon Beijing time. This is the second-highest level of Japanese football. The level of this league is quite mediocre by global standards – for a second tier. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of worse than average quality by this league's standards here. Most importantly, we have a very promising betting opportunity to make more profit betting on this league here! We have won four of the last five picks betting on this league - long-term results are also very good! Mito are a lowly team, no one should deny this. They have some decent players in the squad but do not play well as a team. I also do not trust their coach in terms of tactics - especially in his abilities to organize the offense even at a satisfactory level. It seems that the bookies see them having decent potential for improvement.. In my expert opinion this potential is very limited! Last season they finished in 17th place in this league with a total of 22 clubs. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) was lower than the actual number of 47 – 41.17 to be precise.
I expect Mito to be at big risk of being relegated to the J3 League for the next season! Kumamoto ended up in 14th place last season but should do better this season. I have Kumamoto in 12th place in my power rating. This rating reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting lineup – excluding the motivation factor as well as the possible fatigue – caused by a demanding schedule. Mito are in 20th place in this rating. Let's not forget that Mito have not been able to beat Kumamoto in any of the last three games between the two teams. Mito, with some luck, took a point from Kumamoto away from home last season but Kumamoto were the better team, recording more goal attempts, shots on goal, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. About a year ago Kumamoto crushed Mito on the road 3-0 after a dominant performance. They recorded a whopping 23 goal attempts – Mito had only nine.
Mito currently occupy the 19th place and have only 11 points to their account. Their offense has lacked basically everything needed to do well at this level! Indeed, their strikers are not skilled, creative or fast enough. Furthermore, their offense is very poorly structured and their midfielders do not take part in attacking actively enough! Mito have netted the ball only 10 times in this league. Their defence, however, has been pretty solid – they have conceded 15 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 19.24. In their last four games they have allowed a total of eight goals. Kumamoto have scored a decent 18 goals, just two goals less than V-Varen Nagasaki, currently in 2nd place. Their defence has been a disappointment to me though – they have allowed 27 goals. However, once their defenders start avoiding stupid risks I believe their number of goals conceded per game on average will decrease.. Their number of xGA is, after all, "only" 21.23.
The biggest bookies who accept the biggest bets from customers have made yet another mistake here – offering Mito odds of around 2.55, which is too low. Kumamoto deserve to be solid favourites here – with the expected lineups. We will eagerly place a bet on them – with the +0.5 goals handicap option! Both teams have been in lame form recently. Indeed, Mito have won only one of their last 13 games! Their fans have been very frustrated - this is hardly a surprise. I do not expect the atmosphere at the stadium to be great here.. In their last match they were beaten by Yokohama FC. The hosts won 2-0 and fully deserved the three points. They had many more goal attempts (14-6), shots on goal, shots off target, corner kicks (8-1), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks as well as expected goals (xG). Before this Mito were disappointing at home – losing to Fujieda MYFC 2-3 at home. Fujieda were priced around 5.00 to win on the betting market but even recorded more attacks and dangerous attacks. The hosts had many more goal attempts (22-9) though but the ball possession was 50-50%. Mito's defensive vulnerabilities were clearly exposed in this game! Before this Mito beat Renofa Yamaguchi 2-1 at home but did not deserve the win! The hosts recorded more goal attempts (20-10), shots on goal, shots off target, corner kicks (7-0), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Renofa also generated much more in expected goals (xG) than lucky Mito.
Kumamoto's recent results are poor but they have also had quite a lot of bad luck in many games.. The bookies seem to have overreacted to their winless run. In their last game Kumamoto played a balanced game at home against Kagoshima Utd. The visitors, however, played better than usual and Kumamoto's defence was not, in all honesty, great.. I was slightly disappointed with Kumamoto's performance as a whole - they can do much better! Before this they locked horns with Oita Trinita at home and lost a very balanced clash 1-2. The match could have easily gone either way. On the 24th of April Kumamoto faced Sagan Tosu at home in a YBC Levain Cup battle and were very unlucky to lose 0-1. I want to emphasize that Sagan Tosu play in the J11 League. Kumamoto played well, having 57% ball possession. They recorded more goal attempts (7-2), shots on goal, shots off target, corner kicks (8-3), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks as well as expected goals (xG)!
该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:
水户蜀葵VS熊本罗索
北京时间周一下午，日本J2联赛第14轮将在Best Denki体育场迎战熊本。这是日本足球的第二高水平。以全球标准来看，这个联赛的水平相当平庸——对于一个二线球队来说。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场低于联赛平均水平的比赛。最重要的是，我们有一个非常有前途的投注机会，在这个联赛中投注更多的利润!我们在过去的5次选秀中赢了4次，长期的结果也很好!水户是一支卑微的球队，没有人应该否认这一点。他们队中有一些不错的球员，但整体表现不佳。我也不相信他们的教练的战术，尤其是他组织进攻的能力，即使是在一个令人满意的水平。赌徒们似乎认为他们有很大的提高潜力。在我的专家看来，这种潜力是非常有限的!上个赛季，他们总共有22家俱乐部，在联赛中排名第17位。但是，他们的期望值(xPTS)比实际值(47 ~ 41.17)要低。
我预计下个赛季水户将面临降级到J3联赛的巨大风险!熊本上赛季排名第14，但本赛季应该做得更好。熊本在我的能量评级中排名第12位。这个评级反映了球队的纯粹等级，他们拥有最好的首发阵容——排除了动力因素和可能的疲劳——由高强度的赛程引起的。水户排在第20位。让我们不要忘记，水户在两队之间的最近三场比赛中都没能击败熊本。幸运的是，上个赛季，水户在客场从熊本手中拿到了一分，但熊本表现更好，他们的进球次数、射门次数、角球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。大约一年前，熊本在客场以3比0的优势击败了水户。他们记录了惊人的23次射门，而水户只有9次。
水户目前排在第19位，他们的账户上只有11分。他们的进攻基本上缺乏在这个水平上取得好成绩所需要的一切!事实上，他们的前锋技术、创造力和速度都不够。此外，他们的进攻结构非常糟糕，他们的中场球员没有积极参与进攻!在这个联赛中，美藤只有10次进球。然而，他们的防守相当稳固——他们丢了15个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)是19.24个。在最近的四场比赛中，他们一共丢了8个球。熊本进了18球，只比目前排名第二的长崎少2球。他们的防守让我很失望——他们丢了27个球。然而，一旦他们的后卫开始避免愚蠢的风险，我相信他们的场均失球数量将会减少。毕竟，他们的xGA数“只有”21.23。
接受客户最大赌注的最大博彩公司在这方面又犯了一个错误——将水户的赔率定在2.55左右，这太低了。熊本应该在这里成为最受欢迎的人——在预期的阵容下。我们将热切地在他们身上下注-与+0.5个进球障碍选项!这两个队最近的状态都不太好。事实上，水户在过去的13场比赛中只赢了一场!他们的球迷非常沮丧——这并不奇怪。我不指望这里的气氛会很好。在上一场比赛中，他们被横滨队打败了。东道主以2比0取胜，完全配得上三分。他们有更多的进球尝试(14胜6负)、射正、射偏、角球(8胜1负)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数以及预期进球次数(xG)。在此之前，水户在主场的表现令人失望——在主场以2比3输给了藤田。在博彩市场上，藤田的胜率在5.00左右，但甚至出现了更多的攻击和危险攻击。虽然主队有更多的进球尝试(22-9)，但控球率是50%。水户的防守弱点在这场比赛中暴露无遗!在此之前，水户在主场2-1击败了山口雷诺法，但他们不配赢得这场胜利!东道主的进球次数(20胜10负)、射正、射偏、角球次数(7胜0负)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。雷诺法的预期进球(xG)也比幸运的水户多得多。
熊本最近的成绩很差，但他们在很多比赛中也运气不好。博彩公司看到了
艾米对他们的失败反应过度了在上一场比赛中，熊本在主场对阵鹿儿岛联队的比赛中表现平衡。然而客队打得比平时好，而熊本的防守老实说并不好。我对熊本的整体表现有点失望——他们可以做得更好!在此之前，他们在主场与大田三丽塔发生了冲突，并以1比2输掉了一场非常平衡的比赛。这场比赛本来可以很容易地走向任何一方。4月24日，熊本在YBC列文杯比赛中主场迎战萨根托苏，不幸以0-1输掉比赛。我想强调的是，萨根·托苏在J11联赛打球。熊本打得不错，控球率达到57%。他们的进球次数(7-2)、射正、射偏、角球次数(8-3)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数以及预期进球次数(xG)都更多!
