外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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Poland VS Netherlands



Poland and Netherlands lock horns in this EURO 2024 Group D opening round game at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a clash of mediocre quality by this tournament's quality here. However, we have a pretty lucrative betting opportunity here. Poland have been dropping in the FIFA ranking in recent years. Indeed, they are now in 28th place in this ranking. I would say that 34-35th would be a more accurate ranking. Lewandowski, who plays in Barcelona, has been an extremely important – player for Poland over 10 years. I would say Poland have depended too much on him. Even with "Lewa" Poland's offense has been poor for a country who even played in the World Cup in Qatar 2022. They were lucky in the group stage and qualified for the Playoffs where they got crushed by Mbappe's France. Now Lewandowski out out and the bookies, of course, understand that this hurts Poland's chances. However, it seems that they have failed to give enough emphasis to his absence. Quite possibly the bookies, on the other hand, give too much emphasis to Netherlands' de Jong being out. He cannot be a replaced with a similar player, with as high quality but against Poland missing him will only have moderate effect on the Dutch team's chances. Odds of around 1.50 are widely available on the Netherlands win and we will take it.

The Netherlands are not among the top-5 favourites in this tournament, even with de Jong on the pitch. However, they have a huge edge over Poland in all areas of the game. Their defence is, in fact, among the very best in this tournament, at least on paper. I would not be at all surprised if Poland, with a toothless offense, were to fail at scoring here. The Netherlands took two fine wins in the friendly games, played last week. Indeed, they crushed Iceland in their most recent game 4-0 at home. The hots had a whopping 20 goal attempts and recorded many more shots on goal than the visitors – 8-1. Before this they easily beat a pretty good team, Canada, 4-0 at home – generating 3.32 in expected goals (xG). Canada managed only 0.45. Poland beat Turkey 2-1 in their last game at home but the Turks had more attacks, shots on goal as well as shots off target. Poland did not impress me as a whole...



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波兰VS荷兰



2024年欧洲杯D组首场比赛,波兰队和荷兰队将在汉堡人民公园球场展开对决。足球迷和我们这些严肃的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场平庸的比赛。然而,我们有一个相当有利可图的赌博机会。近年来,波兰在国际足联的排名一直在下降。事实上,他们现在在这个排行榜上排名第28位。我会说34-35会是一个更准确的排名。莱万多夫斯基效力于巴塞罗那,在过去的10年里,他一直是波兰队中非常重要的球员。我会说波兰太依赖他了。即使有了“莱瓦”,作为一个甚至参加过2022年卡塔尔世界杯的国家,波兰的进攻也很糟糕。他们在小组赛阶段很幸运,进入了季后赛,在那里他们被姆巴佩的法国队击败。现在莱万多夫斯基出局了,博彩公司当然明白这会损害波兰的机会。然而,他们似乎没有给予他缺席足够的重视。另一方面,很可能博彩公司过于强调荷兰队德容的出局。他不能被类似的球员取代,他的水平也一样高,但对波兰的比赛中失去他只会对荷兰队的机会产生适度的影响。荷兰队获胜的赔率约为1.50,我们将接受。

即使德容在场上,荷兰队也不在本届世界杯的前五名之列。然而,他们在比赛的各个方面都比波兰队有巨大的优势。事实上,他们的防守是本届杯赛中最好的,至少在纸面上是这样。如果波兰队进攻乏力,在这里无法进球,我一点也不会感到惊讶。荷兰队在上周进行的友谊赛中取得了两场精彩的胜利。事实上,在最近的一场比赛中,他们在主场以4:0击败了冰岛队。热队有惊人的20次进球尝试,射门次数也比客队多——8比1。在此之前,他们在主场以4比0轻松击败了一支相当不错的球队——加拿大队,预期进球数为3.32。加拿大仅为0.45。波兰队在上一场主场比赛中以2比1击败了土耳其队,但土耳其队的进攻、射正和射偏次数都更多。波兰整体上没有给我留下深刻印象。

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