4/5 last WON in this league! $$$
2024-08-15
分享比赛
Slask Wroclaw VS St. Gallen
Slask Wroclaw host St. Gallen for this UEFA Conference League Qualification round 3 second leg battle at Tarczynski Arena in Wrocław early Thursday morning Beijing time. Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of somewhat average quality by this competition's second round standards here. Most importantly, we have yet another very promising betting opportunity! We have won four of the last five bets/picks on this league. The visitors come from Switzerland, the hosts are a Polish team. St. Gallen finished in 5th place in the Swiss Super League last season with 57 points. This was 20 points less than Young Boys, the reigning champions, managed to grab. Indeed, St. Galen are not a top-team in Switzerland. In the 2022-2023 season they ended up in 6th place, 29 points less than Young Boys.. Furthermore, according to a well-known and respected source, a German website, Transfermarkt.com, St. Gallen are the bigger team here - but only by a pretty thin margin.. Indeed, their players are valued at around 23 million euros. In my expert opinion this is slightly too low.. The Slask squad is valued at some 18 million. Around 24-25 million would be an accurate number though. Three of their players are undervalued..
Yes, St. Gallen won the 1st leg 2-0 but the final score is misleading! The hosts had 52% ball possession but Slask recorded many more goal attempts (21-13), shots on target, corner kicks (7-3), as well as dangerous attacks – 74-67 to be precise. They are, of course, in a tricky situation here but surely feel that in front their loud fans still have a genuine chance of eliminating the Swiss.. St. Gallen will, of course, not want to just show up the pitch and try to play very defensive risk-free football – ie. aim at defending their 2-0 lead on aggregate but there is long-term data reflecting that in reality this very often rather impossible to avoid.. In most football matches the team trailing – by a margin of one or two goals - has a bigger goal expectancy than they would have if the score were level.. However, in the scenario where the host lead by a margin of one goal late into the second half, St. Gallen will surely defend with 10 or 11 men. This means that their probability of leveling the score is low.. They will probably mainly concentrate on wasting time.. However, we must accept the risk that in the injury time Slask will most probably "risk it all" in an attempt to force an extra time - why would they not..? However, we have to accept this risk - and most importantly the odds on the home win are simply too tempting – around 2.60 at the time of posting this in-depth analysis.. Some of the biggest bookies see the hosts as slim favourites – some slightly side with the Swiss visitors.. I believe that more money, especially from betting syndicates and independent sports bettors will come for Slask before kickoff. Their odds have been dropping today.. The Slask win is the more lucrative – and of course riskier option – than the +0.5 goals handicap option.
Slask eliminated Riga FC, one of the two top-teams in Latvia, in the previous round of qualification. Riga FC won the first leg at home but the Polish visitors would have deserved at least a draw.. Indeed, they recorded many more goal attempts and shots off goal (7-3). Riga had one more shot on goal though.. Slask played, in my expert opinion, slightly too cautious football and did, in all honesty, also lack some speed and creativity offensively.. Indeed, many of their attacks were too predictable which made it too easy for Riga to defend.. At home I expected a "totally different mentality" and style of play from Slask and this was, indeed, the case! The first half was somewhat balanced and the score was 1-1 at halftime. However, Simeon Petrov and Matías Nahuel scored in the 49th and 52th minute(s). After the goals some of the Riga FC players become very frustrated on the pitch.. In the 61st minute Riga's Orosco was sent off and Slask cruised to a 3-1 win. In the 1st half Riga FC played well above their normal level - Slask, on the other hand, looked nervous - failing to reach a "flow state" despite massive support from their loud fans... To sum up, Slask deserved to qualify but they did not, in all honesty, fully impress me against the Latvians.. They can, and probably will, improve significantly!
In their last game Slask played a goalless draw on the road against Widzew Lodz. They were solid underdogs on the betting market but recorded many more goal attempts (17-6), shots on goal, shots off goal as well as dangerous attacks. Slask defended very well as a team and would have deserved a narrow win. Based on the events on the pitch, they were clearly undervalued on the betting market – despite being unable to take all three points.. They generated 1.45 in expected goals (xG) – Lodz managed only 0.25. Before eliminating Riga FC at home, Slask lost to Piast Gliwice 0-2 away from home but their performance was still satisfactory.. Slask surely had their minds partly in the very important game against Riga FC.. The ball possession was 50-50% and the hosts recorded only a few more goal attempts and two more dangerous attacks than Slask. Gliwice did, however, generated more in expected goals (xG). Slask were priced around 5.00-5.80 to win this match.. Before the first leg in Riga, Slask played a 1-1 draw at home against Lechia Gdansk. The score is extremely misleading though! Indeed, Slask had 60.40% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (19-3), shots on goal, shots off target (14-1), corner kicks (12-1), total passes, completed passes, attacks as well as dangerous attacks – 86-44. Moreover, the xG numbers were 2.43-0.20 in their favour! Before this Slask had to settle for another 1-1 draw against a quite dangerous team from Czechia, Mlada Boleslav. Slask made a total of nine substitutions in this friendly game.. Before this they easily defeated Opava, another Czech team, 2-0 in another friendly game.
St.Gallen eliminated a Kazakhstani team, Tobol, in the round 2nd of Qualification. They were priced around 1.20-1.25 to qualify by the bookies and eventually won 5-1 on aggregate. yes, they deserved to qualify but Tobol were even worse than I would have expected.. Their defence was very poorly organized. St. Gallen more or less got the job done in the 1st leg at Kybunpark - winning 4-1.They recorded 19 goal attempts – the visitors managed seven. The final score slightly flatters the Swiss though. They have won three of the four games in the Super League so far. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is less than nine.. In their last game they were priced around 1.55 to beat Grasshoppers at home and took a hard-fought 1-0 win. It was not an impressive performance, especially offensively. The visitors even recorded more goal attempts and shots off goal.. Both teams had 106 attacks. In round 3 of the Super league St. Gallen defeated Lausanne 4-3 on the road. However, the host recorded 21 goal attempts – St. Gallen's number was 11...
该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:
斯拉斯克弗罗茨瓦夫VS圣加仑
北京时间14日凌晨，欧足联预选赛第三轮第二回合的比赛将在Wrocław塔琴斯基球场举行。足球迷和我们这些着眼长远利益的严肃投注者，可以期待一场以本赛事第二轮标准衡量的中等质量的比赛。最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有前途的赌博机会!我们在这个联赛的最近五次下注中赢了四次。客队来自瑞士，东道主是波兰队。圣加仑队上赛季以57分排名瑞士超级联赛第五名。这比卫冕冠军Young Boys少了20分。事实上，圣加伦并不是瑞士的顶级球队。在2022-2023赛季，他们最终排名第6，比年轻男孩少29分。此外，根据一个知名且受人尊敬的消息来源，一家德国网站Transfermarkt.com，圣加仑队在这里是更大的球队-但只是很小的差距。事实上，他们的球员身价在2300万欧元左右。在我的专家看来，这个价格有点太低了。斯莱克队的身价约为1800万美元。大约2400万到2500万是准确的数字。他们的三个队员被低估了。
是的，圣加仑队在第一回合以2比0获胜，但最终比分是误导人的!东道主的控球率为52%，但斯拉克的进球次数(21-13)、射正、角球(7-3)以及危险进攻(74-67)要多得多。当然，他们在这里的处境很棘手，但他们肯定觉得，在他们喧闹的球迷面前，他们仍然有真正的机会淘汰瑞士队。当然，圣加仑不希望仅仅在球场上出现，并试图打出非常防守的无风险足球。他们的目标是捍卫总比分2-0的领先优势，但长期数据表明，这在现实中往往是不可能避免的。在大多数足球比赛中，落后一到两个球的球队的进球预期会比比分持平时更大。但是，在下半场后半段东道主领先1球的情况下，圣加仑队肯定会以10人或11人防守。这意味着他们扳平分数的可能性很低。他们可能只会浪费时间。然而，我们必须接受这样的风险:在伤停补时阶段，斯拉斯克很可能会“冒着一切风险”，试图强行进入加时赛——他们为什么不呢?然而，我们不得不接受这种风险——最重要的是，主场获胜的赔率实在太诱人了——在发表这篇深度分析时，赔率约为2.60。一些最大的博彩公司认为东道主的夺冠希望不大——有些人略微看好瑞士客队。我相信更多的钱，尤其是来自博彩集团和独立体育投注者的钱，会在开球前涌向斯拉克。今天他们的赔率一直在下降。Slask赢球是比+0.5个进球障碍更有利可图的选择，当然也更有风险。
在上一轮资格赛中，斯拉克淘汰了拉脱维亚两支顶级球队之一的里加足球俱乐部(Riga FC)。里加足球俱乐部在主场赢得了首回合的胜利，但波兰客队至少应该得到一场平局。事实上，他们的射门次数和射偏次数要多得多(7比3)。不过里加队又射正了一脚。在我看来，斯拉斯克踢得有点过于谨慎，老实说，他在进攻端也缺乏一些速度和创造力。事实上，他们的许多进攻太容易预测，这使得里加太容易防守。在主场，我期待着斯拉斯克有一种“完全不同的心态”和踢球风格，事实也确实如此!上半场的比分有些平衡，半场结束时比分是1比1。然而，佩特罗夫和Matías纳韦尔分别在第49分钟和第52分钟进球。进球后，一些里加足球俱乐部的球员在球场上变得非常沮丧。在第61分钟，里加的奥罗斯科被罚下，斯拉斯克以3-1大胜。上半场，里加足球俱乐部的表现超出了他们的正常水平，而另一方面，斯拉克看起来有些紧张，尽管他们的球迷大声支持，但他们未能达到“流动状态”。总而言之，斯拉斯克理应出线，但老实说，他们在对阵拉脱维亚的比赛中并没有给我留下深刻的印象。他们可以，而且很可能会显著提高!
在他们的上一场比赛中，斯拉克在客场0 - 0战平了维德泽-罗兹。在博彩市场上，他们是绝对的失败者，但他们的进球次数(17胜6负)、射正、射偏以及危险进攻都要多得多。斯拉斯克作为一个团队防守得非常好，而且会有得分
以微弱优势取胜。从球场上发生的事情来看，他们在博彩市场上显然被低估了——尽管他们无法拿到全部三分。他们创造了1.45个预期进球，而罗兹只创造了0.25个。在主场淘汰里加之前，斯拉斯克客场0-2不敌皮亚斯特·格列维斯，但他们的表现仍然令人满意。斯拉斯克肯定把他们的注意力集中在对阵里加的重要比赛上。控球率为50-50%，东道主的进球次数只比斯拉克多几次，危险进攻也只比斯拉克多两次。然而，Gliwice确实产生了更多的预期目标(xG)。Slask的价格在5.00-5.80左右，赢得这场比赛。在里加的首回合比赛之前，斯拉斯克主场1-1战平格但斯克。然而，这个分数极具误导性!事实上，斯拉克有60.40%的控球率，并且有更多的进球尝试(19-3)、射正、射偏(14-1)、角球(12-1)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数(86-44)。此外，他们的xG值为2.43-0.20 !在此之前，斯拉克不得不面对来自捷克的一支相当危险的球队姆拉达·博尔斯拉夫，再次1-1战平。在这场友谊赛中，斯拉斯克总共换下了9人。在此之前，他们在另一场友谊赛中以2比0轻松击败了另一支捷克球队奥帕瓦。圣加仑队在资格赛第二轮淘汰了哈萨克斯坦球队托博尔队。博彩公司将他们的出线价格定在1.20-1.25左右，最终以5比1的总比分获胜。是的，他们应该出线，但是托博尔比我想象的还要糟糕。他们的防守组织得很差。圣加仑队在首回合对阵Kybunpark的比赛中或多或少完成了任务，以4-1获胜。他们有19次射门，而客队只有7次。不过，最终的比分让瑞士人略感欣慰。到目前为止，他们在中超联赛的四场比赛中赢了三场。然而，它们的期望值点数(xPTS)少于9。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场击败蚱蜢队，并以1-0艰难取胜，被定价在1.55左右。这不是一个令人印象深刻的表现，尤其是在进攻端。客队甚至有更多的射门次数和射偏次数。两队都有106次进攻。在超级联赛的第三轮比赛中，圣加仑队在客场以4比3击败洛桑队。然而，东道主记录了21次进球——圣加仑队的数字是11次……
