外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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Bodo Glimt VS Crvena Zvezda



Bodo/Glimt welcome Crvena Zvezda (Red Star Belgrade) for this UEFA Champions League 4th – and last - Qualification second leg at Aspmyra Stadion in Bodø early Wednesday morning Beijing time. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a game of pretty mediocre quality by this competition's 4th round standards here.. The hosts are a Norwegian team, the visitors come from Serbia. Firstly, I want to mention that Bodo have never qualified for the Champions League group stage. Red Star have, on the other hand, have  – many times - for example last year! In 2018 they even beat Liverpool 2-0 through Milan Pavkov's two goals. They did not manage to take any wins in Group C last season but performed pretty well against Manchester City, a top-2 team in the world, Leipzig, a strong German team and the Swiss Young Boys. They were even leading in Manchester 1-0 after the first half.. At home they lost only 2-3 to Man City..  According to a well-known and respected German source, Transfermarkt.com, Red Star are the bigger team here – by a pretty wide margin! Indeed, their players are valued at an estimated total of 71 million euros! However, some 80-81 would be a more accurate number. Three of their players are undervalued. The Bodo/Glimt squad, on the other hand, is valued at around 38 million euros. This is a bit too high though.. Having said that I want to emphasize, the total market values very often reflect the teams' level on the pitch well but can, of course, sometimes be misleading as well.. For example, a still extremely good player, Lionel Messi, 37, who plays for Inter Miami in the MLS in the USA, is valued at "only'' 30 million euros. The home advantage is – typically for international matches – very high here. The match is played on artificial turf which increases the home advantage further. The hosts will be without Elabdellaoui, Skeide and Vetti. Auklend, Bassi, Moe, Wembangomo and Zugel are questionable. As for the visitors, Degenek, Lucic are out. Glazer is questionable.. With the expected lineups, taking the home advantage into account, the Norwegians, of course, deserve to be the favourites. They have a 47% chance of winning. However, the odds on the home win are only around 1.70 on the home win so the Red Star +0.5 goals handicap option is the obvious smart bet here!


In the previous round of qualification Bodo easily beat Jagiellonia, the unexpected champions of Poland last season, 5-1 on aggregate. Jagiellonia are not among the top-3 favourites on the betting market to win the Polish Ekstraklasa this season.. Red Star are a hugely better team in terms of pure class than Jagiellonia and also have much more experience of big international games than Jagiellonia – or Bodo.. The Norwegians easily won the 2nd leg 4-1 at home. They were priced around 1.45 to do so on the betting market.. Bodo were the better team in the first leg as well. They played much better as a team than the Polish hosts did. Bodo had 63% ball possession and recorded 13 goal attempts. They allowed the Poles only two shots on goal, recording four themselves.. I liked the way they shut down the hosts' offense in front of some 20 000 enthusiastic home fans.. Bodo also had many more corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks in these games. However, I believe the two wins over the surprisingly lowly Jagiellonia affect the odds too much against Red Star.. Bodo very rarely face opponents of Red Star's caliber and the physicality and skill level of the Serbs will not be easy for Bodo to deal with.. Between the two games against Jagiellonia, Bodo Bodo faced Viking on the road as favourites on the betting market and took a 1-1 draw despite squad rotation by Bodo's head coach, K. Knutsen.


Red Star were, once again, dominant in the Serbia Super Liga last season, taking a whopping 96 points in 37 matches. They won 31/37 games! Moreover, their score difference was 94:28! They currently top the Super Liga standings after five rounds of play with 13 points and a score difference of 18:4. Bodo, on the other hand, currently  top the Norwegian Eliteserien standings with 41 points after 19 rounds of play. They have won 12/19 matches. I want to highlight that the Serbs have lost only one of their last 36 matches and have now won three games in a row. They last lost a competitive game in December last year! What an amazing record that is! Red Star will surely feel confident here! They have scored a stunning 12 goals in their most recent three matches. In their last game they swept past a pretty dangerous team, Cukaricki, 4-1 on the road. They recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal, shots off target, attacks and dangerous attacks. Before this they very easily beat Novi Pazar 4-1 at home. In round 3 Red Star faced Tekstilac Odzaci on the road – giving the hosts no chance at all!  Red Star recorded 19 goal attempts and cruised to a 4-0 win!



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Bodo Glimt VS . Crvena Zvezda



博多/格里姆特欢迎贝尔格莱德红星队参加北京时间周三凌晨在博多的阿斯迈拉球场举行的欧冠第四轮也是最后一轮资格赛次回合比赛。球迷们和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场质量相当平庸的比赛,以本届世界杯第四轮的标准来看。东道主是挪威队,客队来自塞尔维亚。首先,我想提一下,博多从来没有进入过欧冠小组赛。另一方面,红星队有——很多次——比如去年!2018年,他们甚至凭借米兰·帕夫科夫的两个进球以2比0击败了利物浦。上个赛季,他们在C组没有取得任何胜利,但在对阵世界排名前二的曼城、实力强大的德国莱比锡和瑞士青年男孩队时,他们表现得相当出色。上半场结束后他们甚至在曼彻斯特1-0领先。在主场他们只以2-3输给了曼城。根据德国知名且受人尊敬的消息来源Transfermarkt.com,红星在这里是一支更大的球队——以相当大的差距!事实上,他们的球员估计总价值为7100万欧元!然而,大约80-81是更准确的数字。他们的三名球员被低估了。另一方面,博多和格里姆特的组合价值约为3800万欧元。这有点太高了…话虽如此,我想强调的是,总的市场价值通常很好地反映了球队在球场上的水平,但当然,有时也会被误导。例如,37岁的莱昂内尔·梅西(Lionel Messi)仍然非常出色,他效力于美国职业足球大联盟(MLS)的国际迈阿密队(Inter Miami),他的身价“仅”为3000万欧元。主场优势非常大,这是国际比赛的典型特点。比赛在人造草坪上进行,这进一步增加了主场优势。东道主将没有埃拉德拉维、斯凯德和维蒂。奥克利德、巴西、莫伊、温班戈莫和祖格尔都有问题。至于v星人,degenerk和Lucic都出局了。格雷泽值得怀疑……考虑到主场优势,按照预期的阵容,挪威人当然应该成为夺冠热门。他们有47%的获胜机会。然而,主场获胜的赔率只有1.70左右,所以红星+0.5个进球障碍选项显然是明智的选择!


在上一轮预选赛中,博多以总比分5-1轻松击败了上赛季出人意料的波兰冠军亚盖隆尼亚。雅盖隆尼亚并不是本赛季赢得波兰Ekstraklasa比赛的前三名热门球队之一。红星是一支比雅盖隆强得多的球队,而且比雅盖隆或博多有更多的大型国际比赛经验。挪威人在主场以4比1轻松赢得了第二回合。在博彩市场上,它们的价格在1.45左右。博多在首回合也表现得更好。作为一个整体,他们比东道主波兰踢得好得多。博多有63%的控球率,13次射门。他们只让波兰人射正了两脚,自己却射正了四脚。我喜欢他们在大约2万名热情的主场球迷面前压制东道主进攻的方式。在这些比赛中,博多也有更多的角球、进攻和危险的进攻。然而,我相信两场战胜令人惊讶的低水平球队雅盖隆尼亚的胜利对对阵红星的胜算影响太大了。博多很少面对红星这样的对手,塞尔维亚人的身体素质和技术水平对博多来说并不容易对付。在与贾盖洛尼亚的两场比赛之间,博多博多在客场对阵维京队,成为博彩市场上的热门球队,尽管博多的主教练K.克努森进行了阵容轮换,但还是以1比1战平了维京队。


上赛季,红星队在塞尔维亚超级联赛中再次占据统治地位,在37场比赛中获得了96分。他们赢了31/37场!而且,他们的比分差距是94:28!经过5轮的比赛,他们目前以13分和18:4的分差排名中超联赛榜首。另一方面,博多在19轮比赛后以41分排名挪威精英队榜首。他们赢了12/19场比赛。我想强调的是,塞尔维亚人在过去的36场比赛中只输了一场,现在已经连续赢了三场比赛。他们上一次输掉比赛还是在去年12月!这是一个多么惊人的记录啊!红星在这里一定会有信心!他们在最近的三场比赛中打进了惊人的12球。在上一场比赛中,他们客场4-1横扫了一支相当危险的球队库卡里奇。他们记录了更多的进球尝试、射正、射偏、进攻和防守

ngerous攻击。在此之前,他们在主场以4比1轻松击败了新帕扎尔。在第三轮比赛中,红星队在客场面对奥扎奇,东道主根本没有机会!红星队有19次进球尝试,并以4-0轻松获胜!

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