外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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OGC Nice VS Real Sociedad



Nice welcome Real Sociedad for this UEFA Europa League league phase round 1 battle at Allianz Riviera early Thursday morning Beijing time. This is the second highest of UEFA's club competitions. A match of good level by this league's standards is expected here.. The hosts are a French team, the visitors come from Spain. Firstly I want to mention the the Spanish LaLiga is of significantly better quality than the French Ligue. The LaLiga is the 2nd-best league in the world. Ligue 1, on the other hand, is the 5th-best league on the planet. Nice finished in 5th place last season taking 55 points. However, this was a stunning 21 points less than the reigning champions, PSG, managed to grab. Lille's score difference was 40:29. Indeed, they defended well but the number of expected goals allowed (xGA) was still much higher than 29.. They have started the season reasonably well, taking seven points in five games. However, I do not expect them to finish in the top-5 unless something unexpected happens – or they buy a lot of new players in January when the transfer window is open again.. They have, however, won only three of their last 12 matches. In their last game they crushed St. Etienne, a newly-promoted team, 8-0 at home as big favourites, of course. They played well but the visitors played an incredibly poor game defensively. Nice recorded 18 goal attempts, the visitors managed eight. I believe this result affects the odds too much here. Let's remember that Nice, after all, recorded "only" 3.98 in expected goals (xG). Before this were not bad but lost to Marseille 0-2 away from home.


Let's also remember that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Real Socieded are the bigger team here - in terms of players' estimated total market value. The margin is big! The Nice players have an estimated martket value of some 215 million euros. The is a little too high though.. As for the visors the number is clearly above 400 million! Real Sociedad even played in the Champions League Playoffs last season but were beaten by a much bigger club, PSG. Sociedad played at a decent well but their offense was too inefficient in the end. In the Europa League they have a genuine chance of winning the trophy. They finished in 6th place in LaLiga lasts season but have had a challenging start to the season. They have taken only five points in seven games but their number of expected points (xPTS) is higher! They can improve and I don't agree with the bookies who offer Nice odds of around 2.45 to win. I expect a balanced game and we will take the Sociedad +0.5 goals handicap option! In their last game Sociedad locked horns with Valencia away from home and no goals were scored. However, Sociedad generated much more in expected goals (xG) – 1.65-0.82 to be precise!



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尼斯VS皇家社会



北京时间周四凌晨,尼斯欢迎皇家社会参加欧联杯第一轮在安联里维埃拉的比赛。这是欧足联第二高的俱乐部比赛。按照这个联赛的标准,我们期待一场高水平的比赛。东道主是法国队,客队来自西班牙队。首先我想说的是,西甲联赛的质量明显好于法甲联赛。西甲联赛是世界上第二好的联赛。另一方面,法甲是这个星球上排名第五的联赛。尼斯上赛季以55分排名第五。然而,这比卫冕冠军巴黎圣日耳曼少了21分。里尔的比分是40:29。的确,他们防守得很好,但预期失球数(xGA)仍然远高于29个。他们本赛季开局不错,5场比赛拿到了7分。然而,我不期望他们能进入前五,除非发生一些意想不到的事情——或者他们在一月份转会窗口再次打开时买了很多新球员。然而,他们在过去的12场比赛中只赢了3场。在上一场比赛中,他们在主场以8-0击败了新升班马圣艾蒂安,当然,他们是夺冠热门。他们打得很好,但是客队的防守打得糟糕得令人难以置信。尼斯有18次进球,客队只有8次。我认为这个结果影响了太多的可能性。让我们记住尼斯,毕竟,记录“只有”3.98的预期进球(xG)。在此之前我们表现还不错,但是客场0-2输给了马赛。


让我们也记住,根据一个著名和受人尊敬的德国网站,Transfermarkt.com,在球员的估计总市场价值方面,皇家社会是这里更大的球队。利润很大!尼斯球员的市场价值估计约为2.15亿欧元。不过价格有点太高了……至于浏览量,显然超过了4亿!皇家社会甚至在上个赛季参加了欧冠联赛的季后赛,但是被一个更大的俱乐部巴黎圣日耳曼击败。Sociedad踢得不错,但是他们的进攻最后效率太低了。在欧联杯中,他们有真正的机会赢得奖杯。他们上赛季在西甲联赛中排名第六,但本赛季开局艰难。他们在7场比赛中只拿到5分,但他们的期望积分(xPTS)更高!他们可以提高,我不同意博彩公司提供2.45左右的赔率。我期待一场平衡的比赛,我们将采取社会+0.5个进球障碍选项!在上一场比赛中,社会与瓦伦西亚在客场交手,双方没有进球。然而,Sociedad的预期进球(xG)要高得多——准确地说是1.65-0.82 !

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