外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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Larne FC VS Shamrock Rovers



Larne welcome Shamrock Rovers for this UEFA Europa Conference League league phase round 2 battle at Windsor Park in Belfast) very early Friday morning Beijing time. This is the third-highest of UEFA's three international club competitions. The hosts come from Northern Ireland, the hosts are an Irish team. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of very low quality by this league's standards here. Most importantly, my fans and I have yet another very lucrative opportunity to extend the good streak of 4/5 last picks/bets won betting on this league! I will post many more high-quality analyses on UEFA's international leagues today! Yes, Shamrock are the better team here by pure class – however not by a wide margin.. They are the reigning champions of Ireland but this season they have been clearly worse than last season. They are in 3rd place in the lowly Irish Premier Division and will probably not win the league this season as only two rounds of play remain.. They have scored a decent 47 goals but their defence has been much worse than I would have expected. They have allowed 34 goals, eight more than Galway, currently in 5th place! Larne, too, have been disappointing in the NIFL Premiership so far this season. Indeed, they are in 8th place with 15 points after nine games. However, many teams in the league have played 12 – or even 13 games already. Larne have been unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). They have scored 10 goals but their number of expected goals (xG) is much bigger -  15.35!  Larne have allowed seven goals. They will almost certainly climb up the standings as the season progresses.. They won the championship last season, losing just one of the 28 matches!


According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Shamrock are the bigger team here – but only by a very small margin! Indeed, their players have an estimated total market value of some 4.30 million euros, which is still too low!  The Larne squad is valued at around four million. Both numbers are more or less correct.. The bookmakers have made yet another mistake and strongly disagree with me -  offering Shamrock odds of only around 2.20 to win. Based on my strongly data-based expert analysis they deserve to be only marginal favourites here! The Larne +0.5 goals is the obvious smart bet here! In the Conference League opening round Molde, a team from Norway, were priced around 1.10 to beat Larne, and took an easy 3-0 win. Larne, however, were far from their best in this match and can improve! Molde's xG was 1.99 in this match – Larne managed 0.21. We must remember that Molde are a team of totally different caliber than Shamrock. Moreover, Larne usually struggle on the road in international games but in front of their loud fans they perform hugely better. In their last game Larne played a 1-1 draw with Crusaders at home. Both teams performed reasonably well. Shamrock took an undeserved point through a 1-1 draw in the opening round of this league. Apoel, a team from Cyprus, were the better team on the pitch, recording many more goal attempts – 13-4! The xG numbers were 0.98-0.20 in Apoel's favour. The hosts' Farrugia was sent off in the 2nd half though but Shamrock's offense was very lame even before the red card.. Let's remember that Shamrock, too, are a much better team in front of their fans than away from home.. In their last game they beat Drogheda 1-0 on the road as very clear favourites according to the bookies. Drogheda are a lowly team, currently in 9th place in this league with a total of 10 clubs. Before this they beat Shelbourne at home, priced around 1.55 to win at the time of kickoff. However, both teams had the same number of shots on goal and goal attempts. The final score flatters Shamrock. On the 27th of last month Shamrock were terrible, losing 0-3 to St. Patricks at home! The visitors had a few more goal attempts and three more shots on goal. Shamrock were priced around 1.60 to win – which was, once again, clearly too low!



GOOD LUCK!



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拉恩VS三叶草流浪者



拉恩欢迎三叶草流浪者参加北京时间周五凌晨在贝尔法斯特温莎公园举行的欧联杯联赛第二轮比赛。这是欧足联三场国际俱乐部比赛中第三高的比赛。东道主来自北爱尔兰,东道主是一支爱尔兰队。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以联赛标准来看质量很低的比赛。最重要的是,我的球迷和我还有另一个非常有利可图的机会来延续4/5的最后一次选择/投注赢得这个联赛的良好势头!今天我将发布更多关于欧足联国际联赛的高质量分析!是的,三叶草在纯职业上是更好的队伍,但是差距不大。他们是爱尔兰的卫冕冠军,但本赛季他们明显比上赛季差。他们在爱尔兰联赛排名第三,本赛季可能不会赢得联赛冠军,因为只剩下两轮比赛了。他们打进了47个进球,但他们的防守比我想象的要差得多。他们丢了34个球,比戈尔韦多8个,戈尔韦目前排名第五!本赛季到目前为止,拉恩在英超联赛中的表现也令人失望。事实上,他们在9场比赛后以15分排名第8。然而,联盟中的许多球队已经打了12场甚至13场比赛。在期望积分(xPTS)方面,拉恩运气不佳。他们进了10个球,但他们的预期进球数(xG)要大得多——15.35个!雷恩已经丢了7个球。随着赛季的进行,他们的排名几乎肯定会上升。他们上个赛季赢得了冠军,在28场比赛中只输了一场!


根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com的数据,三叶草队在这里的实力更强——但差距非常小!事实上,他们的球员估计总市值约为430万欧元,这仍然太低了!拉恩队的身价约为400万英镑。这两个数字或多或少是正确的。博彩公司又犯了一个错误,他们强烈反对我的观点——给三叶草开出的赔率只有2.20左右。根据我以数据为基础的专家分析,他们应该在这里只被边缘化!拉恩+0.5个进球显然是明智的选择!在联盟第一轮比赛中,来自挪威的莫尔德队以1.10英镑的价格击败了拉恩队,并轻松以3-0取胜。然而,拉恩在这场比赛中还远远没有达到最佳状态,他们还可以提高!莫尔德本场比赛的xG值是1.99,而拉恩的xG值是0.21。我们必须记住,莫德是一支完全不同于三叶草的队伍。此外,在国际比赛中,拉恩队通常在路上表现不佳,但在喧闹的球迷面前,他们的表现要好得多。在上一场比赛中,拉恩在主场1-1战平了十字军。两个队都表现得相当不错。三叶草队在联赛首轮1-1战平,拿到了一分。来自塞浦路斯的阿普尔队在场上表现更好,他们的进球次数更多——13比4!xG值为0.98-0.20,对Apoel有利。虽然主队法鲁吉亚在下半场被罚下,但三叶草的进攻在红牌之前就已经很蹩脚了。让我们记住,三叶草也是一支在球迷面前比在客场要好得多的球队。在上一场比赛中,他们在客场1-0击败德罗海达,根据博彩公司的说法,他们是非常明显的夺冠热门。德罗海达是一支低级的球队,目前在这个联赛中排名第9,总共有10个俱乐部。在此之前,他们在主场击败了谢尔本,开球时的胜率约为1.55英镑。然而,两支球队的射门次数和射门次数相同。最后的比分让三叶草很得意。上个月27号,三叶草队表现糟糕,在主场0-3输给了圣帕特里克队!客队又尝试了几次射门,三次射正球门。三叶草的价格在1.60左右,这显然又太低了!



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