High confidence! TPS土尔库vs洛瓦涅米,“Tapio”老师体育赛事分享,体育直播吧老师分享

TPS Turku vs RoPS Rovaniemi

TPS welcome visitors far from the north, from the Arctic Circle for this Finnish Ykkönen clash at the Veritas Stadion. Ykkönen is the second highest tier of Finnish football and a league I, as a Finn, have followed very closely for some thirty years already and been betting on it professionally for some twenty years. I have watched almost all Ykkönen matches this season and read extensive reports on the few matches I was unable to watch. Let's go for more winners tonight!

Both teams are good for this pretty low-level league, however I see TPS as pretty clear favorites here. First of all I rate TPS as the best team in Ykkönen at the moment followed by VPS and then RoPS. Both TPS and RoPS are traditional Veikkausliiga (the highest level of Finnish football) teams and fight hard to be promoted at the end of the season. RoPS have to travel nearly 1000 kilometers by train to Turku so the home advantage is pretty big here. TPS also have enthusiastic fans and are the "original" and traditional football club in Turku despite Inter Turku being the better of the two at the moment. Some of my fans have learned from previous analyses that TPS are a lot better than the current league table suggests. We have also both picks on TPS in recent weeks. TPS are, as expected, climbing up the table and are now in fifth place and six teams qualify for the Championship Group at the end of the season. I am expecting them to grab a top-3 position and if they can enhance their level even a little from the way they have been playing lately, and if injuries don't hinder them too much, even winning Ykkönen is within their reach! TPS have an excellent coach in Jonatan Johansson who is an ex English Premier League and Finnish national team striker. At the moment the situation in terms of missing players with TPS is very good - only Onnipekka Pajula and Roope Pakkanen are not available for this match. Once again we will not allow the standings fool us. TPS have played a lot better lately than the latest results indicate and with a hint of luck a few draws would have been victories.

TPS are, as I have mentioned in my previous analyses, clearly boosted by the joining of Kasper "Kappe" Hämäläinen who played a very good career abroad for over ten years, for example in Poland for several clubs and also for the Finnish national team. Also striker Ilari Mettälä who joined TPS from Ilves, defender Joonas Sundman and forward Serge Atakay have joined the team. All three are loans from Veikkausliiga teams and after joining TPS in July have made the team a lot stronger compared to early season. It seems to me the betting market fails to understand how good TPS truly are at the moment! Last week-end TPS took another convincing win (2-0)over MuSa in Pori and were clearly the better team, creating over ten scoring chances and having close to 60% ball possession. Before this match they dominated a decent team PK-35 at home and the 2-1 final score should have been more clear in terms of expected goals! Before that TPS beat JIPPO in Joensuu only 1-0 but the pitch was in awful condition which prevented TPS playing their usual attacking football with a lot of passing. On a normal pitch TPS would most likely have won by a bigger margin. Kasper Hämäläinen mentioned above, is indeed a true leader and fighter and was in a big role once again in this match in creating a chance for Atakayi to score the winning goal.

RoPS are in okay form but have not beaten any good teams away from home in Ykkönen for a long time and likely will not tonight either. Last Saturday they defeated the second last (last when the match was played) team in the standings Klubi 04 at home 4-1 but the match was a lot more balanced than the final score suggests. Yes, RoPS deserved to win but perhaps by just one or maximum by two goals. Klubi 04 defended badly which, as such, was not a surprise as most of their players are very young and inexperienced for this level and I also recommended my fans to bet on RoPS in that match. Klubi 04 coach Mika Väyrynen was pretty irritated after the match and highlighted that his team have to concentrate better for the whole 90 minutes. However, ball possession was 50-50% and both teams had about the same number of dangerous attacks. Before this RoPS were beaten 3-2 away from home by Ekenäs IF in a match where the hosts dominated and had 58% ball possession and a lot more scoring chances than RoPS. Even a more clear victory for the hosts would not have been unjustified in terms of expected goals. Also, there have been some flu cases in the team this week so RoPS might have several missings today. It is also possible some players will not be 100% fit but will still have to play - at least some minutes..

To sum up, TPS are clear favorites today and depending on RoPS missings players - have at least 60% chance of winning and perhaps a lot more! TPS -0.5 goals handicap is the pick I recommend for my fans.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

TPS迎战来自北极圈的洛瓦涅米。Ykkönen是芬兰足球的第二顶级联赛和一级联赛，作为一个芬兰人，已经非常密切地跟踪了大约30年，并在职业上押注了大约20年。我看了这个赛季几乎所有的Ykkönen比赛，并阅读了关于我无法观看的几场比赛的大量报道。让我们今晚去争取更多的赢家吧!

在这个低水平的联赛中，这两支球队都很不错，但是我认为TPS显然是这里最受欢迎的球队。首先，我认为TPS是Ykkönen目前最好的团队，其次是VPS，然后是RoPS。TPS和RoPS都是传统的Veikkausliiga(芬兰足球的最高水平)球队，并在赛季结束后努力争取晋升。RoPS要坐火车走近1000公里才能到图尔库，所以这里的主场优势相当大。TPS也有热情的球迷，是图尔库的“原始”和传统的足球俱乐部，尽管国际图尔库目前在这两家俱乐部中更胜一筹。我的一些粉丝从之前的分析中了解到，TPS要比现在的排名好得多。最近几周，我们也都选了TPS。正如预期的那样，TPS正在上升，现在排名第五，并且有六支球队在赛季末有资格进入冠军小组。我期待他们能夺得前三的位置，如果他们能从最近的表现中提高一点水平，如果伤病没有对他们造成太大的阻碍，即使赢得Ykkönen也是可以的!TPS有一个优秀的教练乔纳森·约翰逊，他是前英超和芬兰国家队前锋。现在TPS球员的缺阵情况非常好，只有帕尤拉和帕克卡宁不能参加这场比赛。再一次，我们不会让排名愚弄我们。TPS最近的表现比最近的结果显示的要好得多，如果有一点运气的话，一些平局就会是胜利。

正如我在之前的分析中提到的，TPS显然是由于Kasper“Kappe”Hämäläinen的加入而得到了提升，他在国外打了10多年的好职业生涯，比如在波兰的几家俱乐部和芬兰国家队。从伊尔维斯转会到TPS的前锋伊拉里Mettälä，后卫桑德曼和前锋阿塔凯也加入了球队。这三名球员都是从Veikkausliiga的球队租借而来，在7月份加盟TPS后，这支球队比赛季初强大了很多。在我看来，博彩市场似乎没有理解目前TPS到底有多好!上个周末，TPS在波里又赢得了一场令人信服的胜利(2-0)，他们显然是一支更好的球队，创造了超过10个进球机会，控球率接近60%。在这场比赛之前，他们在主场统治了一支不错的球队PK-35，最后的比分应该是2-1，在预期进球方面应该更清楚!在此之前，TPS在Joensuu仅以1-0击败JIPPO，但球场状况糟糕，阻止了TPS发挥他们通常的攻击型足球，大量的传球。在正常情况下，TPS最有可能以更大的优势胜出。卡斯帕Hämäläinen上面提到，他确实是一个真正的领袖和战士，在这场比赛中再次扮演了重要角色，为Atakayi创造了进球的机会。

RoPS的状态还不错，但是很长一段时间没有在Ykkönen客场击败过任何强队，今晚也不会。上周六，他们在主场4-1击败了排名倒数第二的克鲁比04队(上次比赛进行时)，但比赛比最终比分显示的要平衡得多。是的，RoPS应该赢，但也许只差一个或最多两个进球。Klubi 04的防守很糟糕，这并不令人惊讶，因为他们的大多数球员都很年轻，对这个级别没有经验，我也建议我的球迷在那场比赛中赌RoPS。克鲁比04的教练米卡Väyrynen赛后非常恼火，并强调他的球队必须在整个90分钟内更加集中精力。然而，控球率是50% -50%，两队的危险攻击次数差不多。在此之前，RoPS在客场3-2被Ekenäs IF击败，在这场比赛中，主队占据了主导地位，控球率为58%，得分机会比RoPS多得多。从预期的进球来看，即使东道主取得了更明显的胜利，也不是没有道理的。此外，这周团队中出现了一些流感病例，所以RoPS今天可能会有几个人失踪。也有可能有些球员不是100%的健康，但仍然需要上场——至少几分钟。

总而言之，TPS显然是今天的热门，这取决于RoPS缺失的球员!TPS -0.5是我推荐给球迷的。