Numbers are strongly behind this advice
2021-08-30
分享比赛
In my opinion Fortazela have really good chances to win in today's match up.
When both team's played on lower level, Cuiaba always had big problems against Fortazela-they recorded only one win in 12 matches against them.
What is interesting for me-all 8 experts from the biggest newspaper in Brazil predict home win in this game. I fully agree with them.
Cuiaba are league newcomers and they have really a lot of luck in last matches. In last 4 matches they made 7 points-on the paper this is very good achievement, but that was fully undeserved. In all of those matches the had lower expected goals scored numbers than their opponents (3 times below 0.50). The best example of their luck we saw in last match. They won on away against Palmeiras. Palmeiras created a lot of big chances to score, they had 4.14 expected goals scored and still wasn't 't able to make even one point in that game..
Cuiaba lost only one away match so far (5 draws in 8 games), but like I mentioned before - they luck will not last forever. They conceded 6 goals on away so far, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 11.90. It's huge difference. Even when they played in second league last year, they lost 9 of 19 matches on away and conceded 27 goals.
Fortazela announced big transfer - midfielder Lucas Lima came to the club and he is available today. He could be 'game changer' for the team, he played 14 games for Brazil national team.
Coach Juan Pablo Vojvoda made amazing things with Fortazela in current season. In last season they avoided relegation only by goal difference, now they flying under the radar and they are real candidate for top 5 at least at the of the season. Fortazela looks impressive at home, went unbeaten in 8 matched and recorded 6 wins in the process (17 goals scored).
At Thursday Fortazela played first quarter final match in Cup on away against Sao Paulo. They made great comeback from 0:2 to 2:2 in last 7 minutes and that should be big boost of confidence for the team. They should go with momentum today.
Fortazela don't have problems with goalscoring-they scored at least one goal in last 13 matches in a row. I believe they are able to continue that great streak today. Fortazela have one of the most creative offensive line in whole league (27 big chances created so far). On the other hand Fortazela have the best defense at home in whole league and Cuiaba should have problems with goals here. Only 2 team's in whole league created less big chances to score than Cuiaba (11).
I trust for hosts here.
在我看来，福塔雷萨在今天的比赛中很有可能赢球。
当两队都处于低水平联赛时，库亚巴对阵福塔雷萨总是有很艰难——他们在对阵福塔雷萨的12场比赛中只取得了一场胜利。
对我来说有趣的是，巴西最大报纸的所有 8 位专家都预测了这场比赛的主队胜利。我完全同意他们的看法。
库亚巴是联赛新人，他们在最近的比赛中运气真的很好。在过去的四场比赛中，他们得到了 7 分——在纸面上这是非常好的成绩，但是完全配不上这样的结果。在所有这些比赛中，他们的预期进球数都低于对手。上一场比赛是他们运气好的最好例子。他们在客场战胜了帕尔梅拉斯。帕尔梅拉斯创造了很多进球机会，预期进球4.14，但在那场比赛中没有进球。
到目前为止，库亚巴只输了一场客场比赛（8 场比赛 5 平），但就像我之前提到的 - 他们很幸运但不会永远持续下去。到目前为止，他们在客场丢了 6 个球，但根据预期失球，他们应该丢11.9球，这是巨大的差异。即使他们去年参加了乙级联赛，他们在客场的 19 场比赛中也输掉了 9 场，丢了 27 个球。
福塔雷萨宣布重要转会 - 中场卢卡斯利马来到俱乐部，他今天可以出场。他可以成为球队的“改变者”，他为巴西国家队出战了 14 场比赛。
胡安·巴勃罗·沃伊沃达教练在本赛季与福塔雷萨一起创造了惊人的成就。上赛季他们仅靠净胜球保级，现在他们本赛季是前五名的争夺者。福塔雷萨在主场的表现令人印象深刻，8 场比赛保持不败，并在此过程中取得 6 场胜利（打进 17 球）。
周四，福塔雷萨在客场对阵圣保罗的比赛中参加了杯赛的第一场决赛。他们在最后 7 分钟内从 0:2 逆转到 2:2，这应该提升球队的信心。他们今天应该有动力。
福塔雷萨在进球方面没有问题——他们在最近的 13 场比赛中至少打进了一个进球。我相信他们能够延续这样的势头。福塔雷萨拥有全联盟最具创造力的进攻线之一（创造了 27 次进球机会）。另一方面，福塔雷萨的主场防守是联赛最好的，库亚巴应该很难取得进球。联赛只有两支球队创造的进球机会少于库亚巴（11）。 我相信福塔雷萨可以获胜。
