Wednesday's best bet?
2021-11-04
分享比赛
Liverpool host Atletico Madrid at Anfield for this Champions League round 4 battle. It is a re-match from two weeks ago - Liverpool won 3-2 after a pretty balanced battle in Madrid. Let's take a closer look...
It was indeed a pretty balanced clash two weeks ago between the two big teams despite Liverpool having 63% ball possession. Atletico Madrid in fact even created a little more in goal expectancy. However, overall I see Liverpool as clearly stronger team and home they must have over 60% chance of winning. Atletico Madrid too have struggled with scoring this season but we all know their long-term manager Argentinian Diego Simeone's often pretty cautious tactics.. Normally they do have more fire power for this season though as Antoine Griezmann has returned to the club but he is out from today's match after receiving red card two weeks ago in the 52th minute more or less destroying Tico's changes to fight for the win. I have written before how much I value Griezmann and feel that his absence is not given emphasis by the betting market. Together with Luis Suarez they would have been deadly offensive duo and in my opinion the visitors would have had 3-4% better chance to take at least a point here. Atletico Madrids's season has not been bad so far but still a little disappointing as the reigning champions are currently in fourth place in Spanish La Liga - league that has declined overall in the past five years or so. In England the league is much more competitive in my opinion. Let's remember Spanish clubs have also failed to achieve big results in the Champions League for several years now. In their most recent La Liga match Atletico crushed Betis with easy at home 3-0 but before that they played two quite disappointing draws. First it was a 2-2 home draw with Real Sociedad and then another draw away from home versus a pretty lowly team Levente. In this match Levente created 2.10 in expected goals whereas Atletico's number was just 1.2! They will have to be at their very best level today to get even a point at Anfield in front of loud Liverpool fans. They of course are capable of playing well. About a month ago they were clearly better than Barcelona winning 2-0 at home and creating some 1.50 in expected goals - Barcelona's number was some 0.70 goals. However we all know Barcelona is not that strong anymore without Messi.
Liverpool, on the other hand, have been excellent in almost all the matches this season. They have stunning offensive power in Salah and Mane - just to name a few. Defense is not top quality but good enough still. Last month they for example crushed Man United 5-0 away from home. My fans know I do not rate The Red devils that high but still it was on outstanding performance. Liverpool have won all of their Champions League matches and might well win the domestic league too. They were a little disappointing last week though playing a 2-2 draw with Brighton but I think this match is affecting the odds too much.
To sum up, Liverpool are very clear faves and -0.5 goals handicap is my pick for my fans here.
