外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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Red Star FC 93 VS Pau FC



Red Star and Pau FC lock horns in this French Ligue round 19 clash at Stade Bauer in Paris – Saint-Ouen early Saturday morning Beijing time. The level of this league is very good – for a second tier, I mean. Football fans and serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of rather mediocre quality by this competition's standards here. Most importantly, we have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity! Pau have been very lame on the road in this league so far this season. Indeed, they have won just one away game and have a score difference of 7:15 in these nine matches. They are currently in 10th place in the standings with 24 points to their account. They have scored only 19 goals but their number of expected goals (xG) is a little bigger. Yes, they have conceded only 20 goals but this number is very misleading! Indeed, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) per game is 1.49! I do not see Pau having much potential for improvement.. In fact, I would not be surprised to see them dropping out of the top-13 by the end of the season. Red Star were promoted to this level for this season but have a decent squad by the Ligue 2 standards. They play better as a team than the list of players would suggest. They have taken just two points less than the visitors. Red Stars' have netted the ball 19 times in this league but their number of xG per game is 1.26. The hosts' number of xGA per match is 1.44. By pure class the visitors are marginally the better team but with the expected lineups – taking the substantial home advantage into account – the hosts deserve to be the favourites. The bookies disagree – offering Pau odds of around 2.55 to win. The Red Star +0.5 goals handicap is the obvious smart bet here!


I want to highlight that Red Star have not lost any of their last five games in the 90 minutes of play. On the 30th of November they did, however, lose to FC 93 2-3 after penalties on the road in a Coupe de France (French Cup) clash. In their most recent match they faced Laval on the road as somewhat clear underdogs – taking a point. Both teams had nine goal attempts and two big scoring chances. The xG numbers were 1.35 – 1.26. before this they took a fine 2-0 away win over Rodez. They had four big scoring chances – two hosts managed two. Rodez did record one more goal attempt but Red star generated more in xG and deserved to win. In round 16 Red Star defeated Grenoble. A dangerous opponent, 3-1 at home. It was, however, a relatively balanced clash as a whole. Pau, on the other hand, have won just one of their last five games. In their most recent match they faced Dunkerque at home as slim favourites on the betting market. It was, however, a 1-1 draw. The visitors recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal and shots off target. The xG numbers were 1.94-2.05. Before this Pau were very lucky to get a point from Metz on the road. No goals were scored but Metz had 21 goal attempts! They also recorded more goal attempts, shots on target and shots off goal. Moreover, Metz had two more big scoring chances (3-1) and generated 1.89 more in xG than Pau!



GOOD LUCK!



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

红星93 VS保罗



北京时间周六凌晨,红星队和保罗队将在巴黎圣万鲍尔球场进行法甲联赛第19轮的比赛。这个联赛的水平非常好——我的意思是,对于二线球队来说。足球迷和认真的、渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场以本届比赛的标准来看质量相当平庸的比赛。最重要的是,我们还有另一个非常有利可图的赌博机会!本赛季到目前为止,加索尔在联盟的客场表现非常差劲。事实上,在这九场比赛中,他们只赢了一场客场比赛,比分差距为7:15。他们目前在积分榜上排名第十,积分为24分。他们只进了19个球,但他们的预期进球数(xG)要大一些。是的,他们只丢了20个球,但是这个数字很误导人!事实上,他们每场比赛的预期进球(xGA)是1.49!我不认为保罗有很大的提升潜力。事实上,如果他们在赛季结束前跌出前13名,我不会感到惊讶。红星本赛季升到了这个级别,但按照法甲的标准,他们的阵容还算不错。他们作为一个团队比名单上的球员表现得更好。他们只比客队少拿两分。红星队在联赛中取得了19次进球,但场均射门次数只有1.26次。东道主每场比赛的xGA数为1.44。从纯粹的级别上来说,客队略微更胜一筹,但考虑到预期的阵容——考虑到主场的巨大优势——主队理应成为夺冠热门。博彩公司不同意这一说法,他们给出的赔率是2.55左右。红星+0.5个进球障碍显然是明智的赌注!


我想强调的是,红星队在过去的五场比赛中,在90分钟的比赛中没有输过一场。然而,在11月30日的法国杯客场比赛中,他们在点球大战中以2-3不敌FC 93。在他们最近的一场比赛中,他们在客场面对拉瓦尔,他们显然处于劣势——拿了一分。两队都有9次进球尝试和2次大得分机会。xG值为1.35 ~ 1.26。在此之前,他们客场2:0完胜罗兹。他们有4次进球的机会,其中2个东道主抓住了2个。罗德斯确实又打进了一个进球,但红星在上一场比赛中创造了更多的进球,他们理应获胜。在第16轮中,红星队击败了格勒诺布尔队。一个危险的对手,主场3-1。然而,从整体上看,这是一场相对平衡的冲突。另一方面,保罗在最近的五场比赛中只赢了一场。在他们最近的一场比赛中,他们在主场面对敦刻尔克,在博彩市场上是微弱的热门。结果是1-1战平。客队的进球次数、射正次数和射偏次数都有所增加。xG值为1.94 ~ 2.05。在此之前,保罗很幸运地在客场从梅斯那里得到了一分。没有进球,但梅斯有21次射门尝试!他们也记录了更多的射门次数、射正和射偏。此外,梅斯有两次大得分机会(3比1),在g上的得分比保罗多1.89 !



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