For me this is the best for Saturday!
2021-11-20
分享比赛
This my the best bet for Saturday
In my opinion Burnley have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.
For sure Sean Dyche team coming for this game with positive attitude as they won last 3 matches in a row against Crystal Palace. Burnley won 5 of last 8 home matches against Eagles at Premier League level.
Obviously, Burnley had poor start of the season and they didn't played good for a while even at home, but in last home match they recorded great win against Brentford and their confidence for sure is sky high. In last round they were able to make point at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea and atmosphere in team is great. They wants to go with momentum. The Clarets didn't lost in last 3 matches in a row - they made 5 points and scored 6 goals so it's already more than in opening 11 rounds of the season. Everything start clicking together. Their lost only once in last 6 matches - on away against Manchester City, so no shame at all.
Crystal Palace plays so far really good season in their standards, they didn't lost in last 6 matches in a row (they didn't had streak of 7 matches without a loss since 2018), but I see troubles for them. Their second-best player in current season McArthur is unavailable and this is huge blow for the team. Crystal Palace starting their matches very slow because 13 of their 15 goals so far came in second half. They failed to score in 9 of 11 first halves so far. That may be problematic today because who scored first in last 10 Premier League matches between Eagles and Clarets won the game.
Front of home supporters, Burnley for sure will play agressive. they will play with Wood upftont (he looking for goal #50 in Premier League and he scored deciding goal in last match between both teams at Turf Moor) and behind him will play red-hot Cornet (4 goals in 6 matches, scoring every 92 minutes). If you didn't count Burnley matches from current season against top teams (Chelsea, City & Liverpool) they scored first in 6 of 8 matches. I believe they are able to do it today as well.
Number's not lying. Burnley played better in home matches than their results shows. They scored 5 goals in 5 home matches, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 8.65. On the other hand Crystal Palace had gained more points on away than they should. They scored 6 goals in 5 away matches, but according to the model they should score 4.13. Burnley conceded 5 goals at home, Crystal conceded 10 goals on away so far.
For me Burnley is very underrated here and they have really strong chances to avoid a loss.
这是我周六最好的选择
在我看来，伯恩利有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少拿到一分。
Sean Dyche 队肯定会以积极的态度参加这场比赛，因为他们连续赢得了对水晶宫的最后 3 场比赛。伯恩利在英超联赛中赢得了过去 8 场主场对阵水晶宫的比赛中的 5 场。
显然，伯恩利本赛季开局不佳，甚至在主场也有一段时间没有发挥出色，但在上一场主场对阵布伦特福德的比赛中，他们取得了巨大的胜利，他们的信心高涨。上轮他们能够在斯坦福桥对阵切尔西的比赛中取得进球，球队氛围非常好。他们想顺势而为。在最近的 3 场比赛中没有输球——得到 5 分并打入 6 球，所以这已经超过了本赛季前 11 轮的比赛。一切都开始回暖。他们在过去的 6 场比赛中只输了一次 - 客场对阵曼城，这并不丢脸。
水晶宫以他们的标准来看，这是一个非常好的赛季，他们在最近的 6 场比赛中没有输球（自 2018 年以来，他们从来没有连续 7 场比赛不败），但我看到了他们的麻烦。他们本赛季第二好的球员麦克阿瑟无法上场，这对球队来说是一个巨大的打击。水晶宫的比赛开局非常慢热，到目前为止他们的 15 个进球中有 13 个来自下半场。他们在上半场的 11 场比赛中有 9 场未能进球。这在今天可能是有问题的，因为水晶宫和伯恩利之间的过去 10 场英超联赛中，先进球的球队赢得了比赛。
在主场支持者面前，伯恩利肯定会踢出侵略性。他们将迎来伍德的复出（他在英超联赛中争取个人第 50 粒进球，并且在上一场两队在 Turf Moor 的比赛中打进了决定性进球），而在他身后的将是状态出色的Cornet（6 场比赛 4 球，每 92 场进球）分钟）。如果你不计算伯恩利本赛季对阵顶级球队（切尔西、曼城和利物浦）的比赛，他们在 8 场比赛中有 6 场率先进球。我相信他们今天也能做到。
数据没有说谎。伯恩利在主场比赛中的表现比他们的结果显示的要好。他们在5场主场比赛中打进5球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该的进球数为8.65。另一方面，水晶宫在客场获得的积分超出了他们的预期。他们在 5 场客场比赛中攻入 6 球，但根据模型，他们应该得分 4.13。伯恩利主场失球5球，水晶球至今客场失球10球。
对我来说，伯恩利被严重低估了，他们有很大的机会在本场避免输球。
