Very important game for the league table 荷甲鹿特丹斯巴达VS瓦尔韦克
2021-12-23
分享比赛
In my opinion Sparta have really good chances to make 3 points in today's match up.
In overall Sparta have excellent streak against Waalwijk as they won 6 of last 8 matches against them. Home record looks even more impressive because Sparta won last 6 consecutive home matches against Waalwijk in all competitions. Last match between both teams here at Sparta stadium been played in march and hosts recorded comfortable 2:0 win. For sure they have good mental advantage.
So far both plays very poor season, Waalwijk is just above relegation zone, Sparta is in relegation zone (3 points behind Waalwijk), but for me Sparta have much bigger potential and more quality in their squad. Sparta finished last two seasons (8th & 11th) much higher than Waalwijk (18th & 15th) and without any shadow of doubt they have all required tools to make it happen again this year. I believe today is good moment to bounce back on good track. Despite lower position in the league table Sparta plays better according the the expected goals scored & conceded model. They scored 14 goals, but they should 15.1. They conceded 26 goals, but they should 21.5. On the other hand Waalwijk scored 18 goals, but they should 17.8. Guests conceded 29 goals, but they should 32.9.
If You look on the bigger picture, there is big difference between both teams in terms of quality of play. Sparta at home is very solid team as they won 14 of last 39 home matches in Eredivisie, on the other hand Waalwijk is very poor on away in Eredivisie standards - they lost 24 of last 38 away league matches. In current season Sparta played better at home than their results shows. They scored 8 goals at home so far, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 9.14. They conceded 13 goals at home so far, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede only 7.98. On the other hand Waalwijk had a lot of luck and they recorded better results than they really should. They scored 10 goals in away matches, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score only 6.62. They conceded 13 goals on away, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 17.05. It's huge difference between both teams in that department and that should be very visible today.
Both teams coming for this game with totally different mood and atmosphere. Waalwijk 4 days have been completed trashed 1:4 by PSV at home and for sure that wasn't good for their morale and confidence. Sparta changed the coach 2 weeks ago. Gerard Nijkamp had his first match on Sparta bench 5 days ago. They played at home against very strong Vitesse (5th). Sparta were 0:2 behind, but they were able to comeback. Sparta scored equaliser in additional time and get one point after good draw 2:2. For sure that was big boost of confidence for the team and now the have a lot of self-belief in their abilities and they wants to go with momentum. One more day for recovery and no travel requirements in last days is additional advantage before today's match.
I believe Sparta is strong favorite here and that will be first win at home for their new coach.
在我看来，鹿斯巴达有很好的机会在今天的比赛中拿到 3 分。
总体而言，鹿斯巴达在对阵瓦尔维克的比赛中取得了出色的战绩，他们在过去的 8 场比赛中赢了 6 场。主场战绩看起来更加令人印象深刻，鹿斯巴达在所有比赛中连续 6 场主场对阵瓦尔韦克取胜。两队在斯巴达体育场的最后一场比赛是在 3 月进行的，主队以 2:0 轻松获胜。他们有很好的心理优势。
到目前为止，这两个赛季球队的表现都非常糟糕，瓦尔韦克刚好在降级区之上，鹿斯巴达处于降级区（比瓦尔维克落后3分），但我认为鹿斯巴达的阵容潜力更大，实力更高。鹿斯巴达过去两个赛季（第 8 和第 11）的成绩远高于瓦尔韦克（第 18 和第 15），毫无疑问，他们有实力反超瓦尔韦克。我相信今天是重回正轨的好时机。尽管在联赛中的排名较低，但鹿斯巴达的表现更好，预期进球数和失球数模型都更好。他们打进了 14 球，但应该是 15.1。他们丢了 26 个球，但预期是 21.5 个。另一方面，瓦尔韦克打进了 18 球，但预期应该是 17.8。丢了29个球，预期丢32.9个。
如果你从更大的角度来看，两支球队在比赛手机开方面存在很大差异。鹿斯巴达在主场是非常稳定的球队，他们在过去的 39 场荷甲主场比赛中赢了 14 场，另一方面，瓦尔韦克在客场表现非常糟糕——他们在过去的 38 场客场联赛中输掉了 24 场。本赛季斯巴达在主场的表现比他们的结果要好。到目前为止，他们在主场打进了8球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该打进9.14球。在主场丢了13球，但根据预期的失球模型，他们应该只丢7.98球。另一方面，瓦尔韦克运气很好，他们取得了比真实水平的更好的成绩。他们客场打进了10球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该只打进6.62。在客场丢了 13 个球，但根据预期的失球数模型，他们应该失球 17.05。两个球队之间存在巨大差异，今天应该会体现的非常明显。
两支球队以完全不同的心情和来参加这场比赛。瓦尔韦克4 天前在主场被埃因霍温以 4:1 的比分击败，这肯定对他们的士气和信心不利。鹿斯巴达两周前换了教练。杰拉德·奈坎普 5 天前进行了他的第一场比赛。他们在主场迎战非常强大的维特斯（第 5 名）。斯巴达0:2落后，但他们能够卷土重来，补时扳平，2:2 平局后得一分。可以肯定的是，这极大地增强了球队的信心，现在他们对自己的能力有了很大的自信，并且他们希望保持动力。多一天休息的时间是额外优势。
我相信鹿斯巴达是更受欢迎的球队，这将是他们的新教练在主场取得的第一场胜利的好机会。
