外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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AZ Alkmaar VS FC Twente Enschede


AZ Alkmaar and Twente lock horns in this Eredivisie UEFA Conference League Playoffs Final clash at AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar very early Monday morning Beijing time. This is the first tier of Dutch football. The level of this league is high by European standards but it is still much worse than the top-5 leagues, Here football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a clash of good level by the Eredivisie standards. More importantly we have yet another interesting betting opportunity. There is, in my expert opinion . With the expected lineups - nothing in this game that would justify the current odds of around 1.60 on the home win - offered by the biggest bookies with the largest stake limits. Yes, Alkmaar are the stronger team but only by a somewhat slim margin. According to Transfermarkt.com, a well-known and respected source, Alkmaar are the bigger team here – but only by a pretty narrow margin. Indeed, their players have an estimated total market value of some 98 million euros. The Twente squad is valued at some 76 million euros but this is a bit too low.. The Twente +1.5 goals handicap is the obvious smart bet here.


The regular season had 34 rounds of play. Alkmaar finished in 5th place with 57 points. They scored a total of 58 goals in this league but their number of expected goals (xG) was 55.53. They defended pretty well, a little better than I would have expected in my in-depth preseason analysis. They conceded 37 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) was 41.04. Twente ended up in 6th place with a pretty good 54 points in their pocket. They scored 58 goals and conceded 49 goals. Their defence has a decent structure but silly individual mistakes have been a bit too common to make it to the top-4. Their number of xGA was 47.34. Twente have won three of their last five games, In their last game they showed great fighting spirit, beating Nijmegen 3-2 after extra time at home, despite their player Van Hoorenbeeck being sent off in the 41st minute when the score was 1-0. Alkmaar have won four of their last five games. In their most recent game they were strong, beating Heerenveen 4-1 at home. However, the final score flatters them as they recorded only three more total shots than the visitors.



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阿尔克马尔VS特温特恩斯赫德


北京时间周一凌晨,阿兹阿尔克马尔和特温特将在阿兹阿尔克马尔的AFAS球场进行欧足联联赛季后赛决赛。这是荷兰足球的第一梯队。以欧洲的标准来看,这个联赛的水平是很高的,但它仍然比五大联赛差得多。在这里,足球爱好者和我们这些严肃的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以荷甲标准衡量的高水平比赛。更重要的是,我们还有另一个有趣的下注机会。在我的专家看来,是有的。根据预期的阵容——在这场比赛中,没有什么能证明目前主场获胜的赔率在1.60左右——是由最大的博彩公司以最大的赌注限制提供的。是的,阿尔克马尔是一支更强的球队,但只是微弱的优势。根据Transfermarkt.com,一个知名且受人尊敬的消息来源,阿尔克马尔在这里是更大的球队-但只是非常小的差距。事实上,他们的球员估计总市值约为9800万欧元。特文特队的身价约为7600万欧元,但这有点太低了。特温特+1.5个进球的不利条件显然是明智的选择。


常规赛有34轮比赛。阿尔克马尔以57分排名第五。在本次联赛中,他们总共打进了58球,但他们的预期进球数(xG)为55.53。他们的防守很好,比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好一点。他们丢了37个球,但他们的预期失球数(xGA)是41.04个。特文特以54分的好成绩排名第六。他们进了58球,丢了49球。他们的防守结构还算不错,但愚蠢的个人失误太常见了,无法进入前四。xGA数为47.34。特温特队在最近5场比赛中取得了3场胜利。在上一场比赛中,特温特队在主场加时赛中以3比2击败奈梅亨队,尽管他们的球员范胡伦贝克在1比0领先的第41分钟被罚下。阿尔克马尔在最近五场比赛中赢了四场。在最近的一场比赛中,他们很强大,在主场以4比1击败了海伦芬。然而,最终的得分让他们感到欣慰,因为他们只比客队多进了三次球。

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