外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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Cyprus VS Bosnia & Herzegovina



Cyprus welcome Bosnia & Herzegovina for this FIFA World Cup Qualification Europe Group H battle at AEK Arena in Larnaca early Friday morning Beijing time. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry tipsters can expect a match of somewhat mediocre quality by international standards here. Most importantly, my fans and I have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity!  We have won a fine 16/20 last picks betting on FIFA World Cup Europe matches. More picks will be posted later today and tomorrow. The main rationale behind the pick is to oppose  the once again overrated Cyprus. Some Cypriot teams have done okay this season in international club competitions - Pafos even qualified for the UEFA Champions League league stage. However,  I stress that the role of domestic players in the success has been very small.. They are a poor national team, but are of course better than the very worst teams such as San Marino, Gibraltar and Liechtenstein. They have scored only five goals in five qualification matches - conceding seven. However, their number of expected goals against is bigger. Their defensive structure is not terribly poor but a team of Bosnia & Herzegovina's caliber should find a way to score.. Furthermore, the people of Cyprus are not overly excited with their national team.. In their last home game less than 5000 people showed up at the stadium. Indeed, the home advantage is smaller than average here. Based on my strongly data-based expert analysis - the visitors have a 58.50% chance of winning. Odds of around 1.90 are widely available!


Cyprus are only in 128th place in the FIFA ranking - which is more or less correct. The visitors are in 73rd place but I would rate them around the 55th-best team on the planet - with the best possible line-up. Let's also remember that according to Transfermarkt.com the Cyprus squad has an estimated market of some 20 euros. That is, however, a little too high. The Bosnia players are valued at a total of some 90 million euros - which is marginally too low. Bosnia have started the campaign well, winning 4/5 matches. They top the standings and have a genuine chance to qualify for the World Cup. However, Romania and Austria are better teams by pure class.. Indeed, Bosnia  simply "have to" win games like this! The two teams last locked horns in March and Bosnia won 2-1 at home - despite not being even close to their best. Even so, they recorded more total shots, shots on target and big scoring chances.


In their last match they welcomed Austria - losing 1-2 as pretty clear underdogs on the betting market. They generated 0.63 more in expected goals (xG) than the visitors and also had five more total shots and two more big scoring chances - 3-1. They could easily have even won the game! Austria even qualified for the Playoffs in the EURO 2024.. Before this they crushed San Marino 6-0 away from home. The hosts' A. Golinucci was sent off in the 16th minute though. Cyprus have not won any of their last five matches. In their most recent match they played okay as a whole - taking a point from Romania through a 2-2 draw. However, I highlight that Cyprus performed above their normal level - with Romania it was the opposite.  Even so, the Romanians recorded more big scoring chances. Before this Cyprus lost to Austria only 0-1 but the Austrians should have scored at least two goals - as they generated 2.53 in xG. On the 10th of June Cyprus were lame, losing 0-2 to Romania. The Cypriots recorded only one shot on target - Romania managed six and also generated much more in xG.




GOOD LUCK!



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

塞浦路斯VS波黑



北京时间周五凌晨,塞浦路斯将在拉纳卡AEK体育馆迎接波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那参加国际足联世界杯预选赛欧洲区H组的比赛。足球迷和我们这些严肃的、追求利润的报料人可以期待一场以国际标准衡量的质量一般的比赛。最重要的是,我和我的粉丝又有了一个非常有利可图的赌博机会!我们在世界杯欧洲赛中赢了16/20的好成绩。更多的选择将在今天晚些时候和明天公布。这一选择背后的主要理由是反对再次被高估的塞浦路斯。一些塞浦路斯球队本赛季在国际俱乐部比赛中表现不错,帕福斯甚至获得了欧洲冠军联赛的参赛资格。然而,我要强调的是,国内玩家在成功中的作用非常小。他们是一支糟糕的国家队,但当然比圣马力诺、直布罗陀和列支敦士登等最差的球队要好。他们在5场资格赛中只进了5球,丢了7球。然而,他们的预期进球数量更大。他们的防守结构并不是很差,但是像波黑这样有实力的球队应该能找到进球的方法。此外,塞浦路斯人对他们的国家队并没有过度兴奋。在他们上一场主场比赛中,不到5000人来到体育场。事实上,主场优势小于平均水平。根据我强有力的基于数据的专家分析,客队有58.50%的获胜机会。大约1.90的赔率是广泛存在的!


塞浦路斯在国际足联的排名中仅排在第128位,这或多或少是正确的。客队排在第73位,但我认为他们在这个星球上排名第55位,拥有最好的阵容。让我们记住,根据Transfermarkt.com的数据,塞浦路斯队的转会市场估计在20欧元左右。然而,这有点太高了。波斯尼亚球员的总身价约为9000万欧元,这个数字略低。波斯尼亚开局不错,赢了4/5场比赛。他们在积分榜上名列前茅,有真正的机会进入世界杯。然而,罗马尼亚和奥地利是纯级别更好的球队。的确,波斯尼亚“必须”赢得这样的比赛!两队上一次交锋是在3月份,波黑在主场2-1获胜,尽管他们还没有达到最佳状态。即便如此,他们的射门次数、射正次数和得分机会都更多。


在上一场比赛中,他们欢迎了奥地利,但在博彩市场上以1比2输掉了比赛。他们的预期进球数(xG)比客队多0.63个,总射门次数多5次,进球机会多2次,结果是3比1。他们甚至可以轻松赢得这场比赛!奥地利甚至有资格进入2024年欧洲杯的季后赛。在此之前,他们客场6-0击败了圣马力诺。然而主队的A. Golinucci在第16分钟被罚下。塞浦路斯最近五场比赛一场也没赢过。在最近的一场比赛中,他们整体表现还不错——2-2战平罗马尼亚,从罗马尼亚手中拿到一分。然而,我要强调的是,塞浦路斯的表现高于正常水平,而罗马尼亚的情况恰恰相反。即便如此,罗马尼亚人还是创造了更多的进球机会。在这场比赛之前,塞浦路斯只0-1输给了奥地利,但奥地利人应该至少进两个球——因为他们在上一场比赛中进了2.53球。6月10日,塞浦路斯表现不佳,0-2不敌罗马尼亚。塞浦路斯人只有一次射正,而罗马尼亚人有6次射正,而且在世界杯上射正的次数也多得多。




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