CHAMPIONS LEAGUE! GREAT GAME!
2026-02-18
分享比赛
It's time for the Champions League qualifiers! On Wednesday, the last 4 games are going to happen, and one of them will be between Olympiacos and Leverkusen. In this game, I predict that Leverkusen won't lose.
This is a rematch from matchday 7 when Olympiacos beat Leverkusen 2:0 in Greece, but the scoreline did not fully reflect how the match played out. Olympiacos scored from a corner and then from a fastbreak, yet outside of those 2 moments, they created very little. After going ahead, they managed only 2 more shots for the rest of the game and largely relied on defending deep and protecting their lead. It was a clinical performance, but not one built on sustained attacking pressure.
Offensively, Olympiacos have not been particularly strong in the Champions League. They averaged under 1 non-penalty expected goal per 90 minutes during the league phase, which highlights how limited they can be against higher level opposition. They are not a team that consistently progresses the ball quickly through elite pressing structures, and they often depend on isolated moments rather than sustained dominance.
Leverkusen, on the other hand, has been much more stable defensively under Kasper Hjulmand. Since he took charge at the beginning of September, they have had one of the best defensive records in the Bundesliga, allowing just 1.21 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. While some of their Champions League performances were uneven, many of those came against top tier opponents.
Tactically, Leverkusen continues to operate in a 3-4-2-1, using central overloads and half space combinations to create 2 v 1 situations before pushing their wingbacks high. Since that defeat, they are unbeaten and have generated over 10 expected goals in 6 matches. With their improved form, stronger defensive structure, and likely control of possession, Leverkusen should dictate the tempo and create more sustained pressure this time around. For those reasons, it is difficult to see Olympiacos beating them again, and Leverkusen is well positioned to avoid defeat in this rematch.
该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:
又到了欧冠预选赛的时间了！周三，最后4场比赛将进行，其中一场是奥林匹亚科斯和勒沃库森之间的比赛。在这场比赛中，我预测勒沃库森不会输。
这是第七场比赛日奥林匹亚科斯在希腊2:0击败勒沃库森的比赛的复赛，但比分并不能完全反映比赛的结果。奥林匹亚科斯先是角球，然后是快攻，但在这两个时刻之外，他们创造的机会很少。在取得领先之后，他们在比赛剩下的时间里只投了2次球，很大程度上依赖于防守深度和保护他们的领先优势。这是一场临床表现，但不是建立在持续进攻压力的基础上。
在进攻端，奥林匹亚科斯在冠军联赛中并不是特别强大。在联赛阶段，他们平均每90分钟不到一个非点球预期进球，这凸显了他们面对更高级别对手的能力是多么有限。他们不是一支通过精英压迫结构持续快速控球的球队，他们经常依赖于孤立的时刻，而不是持续的统治地位。
另一方面，勒沃库森在胡尔曼德的带领下防守更加稳定。自从他在9月初执教以来，他们拥有德甲最好的防守记录之一，每90分钟只有1.21个非点球预期进球。虽然他们在欧冠联赛中的表现参差不齐，但其中很多都是在对阵顶级对手时取得的。
在战术上，勒沃库森继续采用3-4-1 -1阵型，利用中路超载和半空间组合创造2v1的阵型，然后将边后卫推到高位。自那场失利后，他们保持不败，并在6场比赛中创造了超过10个预期进球。凭借他们更好的状态，更强的防守结构，和可能控制控球权，勒沃库森应该决定节奏，并创造更多持续的压力。基于这些原因，奥林匹亚科斯很难再次击败他们，而勒沃库森很有可能在这场复赛中避免失败。
